Americas The big May 17 Announcement / Pricing / Discussion thread.

[MTNDOG]

The conversation about the Gren reminds me about the “boots” theory of economics.


In short, those with the extra cash can buy really good Red Wing work boots. They might cost $500 today, but they’ll last for 10 years. That’s only $50 per year.

Poor folks buy their work boots at Walmart for $100. But they only last a year. However, the $500 work boot is just too much money to spend all at once. Poor folks end up paying $1000 over ten years — twice as much as rich folks — but they can’t afford to position themselves in boots that last the decade.

The Gren is the Redwing boot. The Jeep is the Walmart boot.

How many and how long has the Ineos been on the road? I'm not quite sure we know if it is a Red Wing or a Walmart boot, yet. I sure hope it is more of a Nicks boot, as the places I plan on taking it are not going to be near a dealer or even a certified service center, whatever or wherever that might be. A Jeep will have support in most any town in the US. Minus 1 Volvo, I feel like all my cars/trucks/SUVs have been Walmart cars, basic maintenance took care of the Walmart cars. Keeping the Volvo happy got a tad bit more involved and considerably more expensive, before we let it go..... Funny, just looked out the window as the neighbors Tesla went by on a flatbed.

 

[BD1]

My original statement wasn’t about pricing. It was about sales volumes. No, I haven’t run an auto company, but I have been in sales and marketing for a little bit. My point was simply that 10k per year is a LOT of $80k+ vehicles for a new brand to sell, and all models decrease in sales after a few years, hence refreshes.

IG has a compounded problem of being a retro design that fans won’t want updated. It will likely look the same in 10 years as it does in year one. This is what makes G wagons and most motorcycles hold their value so much. With such a strong resale market (and we all assume IGs will last forever), there’s less demand for new product. To artificially maintain demand, you decrease volumes. It’s a delicate balance, ask Ford dealers these days.

Understood.....and Porsche 911 is basically the same design for the past 20-30 years so it is possible.

Also fleet/commercial/military sales can support IG.

If the quality is good and they fix these software issues (which I think they will) they should be able to sell their relatively low volumes globally. It will likely do better in some market vs others.

It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

 

[Sphinx]

That’s an interesting cross shop for certain and one I have trouble understanding. If towing was a priority for you I’m surprised you would consider an SUV/wagon at all, but jumping right to a F350 makes the comparison a bit unfair. And physically, they’re no where near one another - the pickup’s wheel base is FIVE FEET! longer. Not the overall length of the truck mind you, just the wheel base.

I need something that can tow a car trailer and haul 1000 lb of gear at the same time. If I'm going to drop $80K on a truck, I look at everything that can do that. The IG might also convince me to get rid of my minivan, which is a family hauler. So I hoped the IG would help me make the argument that it can do both at a good value. The F350 basically does it without excuses. Still can't get rid of the van. But it's 15 years old and worth nothing but it is reliable - and gives 20 mpg.

If I have to get the truck no matter what (which I hoped to avoid), then the IG is off the table.

That's what I meant by how I'm trying to talk myself into it but I can't make it make sense.

And both are section 179 eligible.

 

[DaveB]

My original statement wasn’t about pricing. It was about sales volumes. No, I haven’t run an auto company, but I have been in sales and marketing for a little bit. My point was simply that 10k per year is a LOT of $80k+ vehicles for a new brand to sell, and all models decrease in sales after a few years, hence refreshes.

IG has a compounded problem of being a retro design that fans won’t want updated. It will likely look the same in 10 years as it does in year one. This is what makes G wagons and most motorcycles hold their value so much. With such a strong resale market (and we all assume IGs will last forever), there’s less demand for new product. To artificially maintain demand, you decrease volumes. It’s a delicate balance, ask Ford dealers these days.

At the moment I think they are running 2 shifts a day 5 days a week, which gives them a capacity of 30,000 a year.
I think you are 100% correct that the demand for the Station Wagon model will start to taper off by 2025/26.
This is when the demand for the dual cab ute will kick in and we will see initial figures ramp up, taking up capacity in their production line.
As they will have the long wheel base chassis in full swing with the ute I am sure you will see a long wheelbase Utility and Station Wagon.
This will see new buyers and also existing owners trading up.
These can all be built on the production line at the same time.
2027/28 they plan to introduce a short wheelbase smaller electric version.
Again this will introduce new buyers and also existing owners who want a second vehicle for around town or for their partners.
2029/2030 they plan a hydrogen version which will again introduce new buyers, trade ups and multiple vehicle owners.
Remember that this is a very large, fully robotised factory, so it is relatively easy to reconfigure to different models
They are also still assembling MB Smart cars there until end of next year (???)
By 2030 a new/update version of the original SW will come out and no doubt we will see higher spec luxury models introduced.

 

[MTNDOG]

I need something that can tow a car trailer and haul 1000 lb of gear at the same time. If I'm going to drop $80K on a truck, I look at everything that can do that. The IG might also convince me to get rid of my minivan, which is a family hauler. So I hoped the IG would help me make the argument that it can do both at a good value. The F350 basically does it without excuses. Still can't get rid of the van. But it's 15 years old and worth nothing but it is reliable - and gives 20 mpg.

If I have to get the truck no matter what (which I hoped to avoid), then the IG is off the table.

That's what I meant by how I'm trying to talk myself into it but I can't make it make sense.

And both are section 179 eligible.

All options on the table for me as well. I am not daily driving a crew cab, long bed F350 tho, I will leave that to you. Our travel trailer is likely going away after this summer, so towing capacity and payload is no longer as important. That's why I am looking at options and not cross shopping. It is surprising how similar a nicely loaded Power Wagon is to the Ineos in my mind (I'm ok shopping at Walmart). The Power wagon comes standard with a winch and locking front and rear differentials on a proven HD platform. The Power Wagon can seat 6 (not sure how comfortable the 6th person will be) vs 5 for the Ineos. The Ineos will have it beat on gas mileage. Cargo capacity by weight will likely be equal. Throw a topper on the Power Wagon and cargo room becomes significantly larger. Life is good when choice is plenty. Ineos still in the lead for me, too many Broncos and too many ram HDs in the neighborhood. I want the, WTH is that look, when I drive by people.

 

[Sekurt]

Ah, except that the actual cost of ownership over the life of the vehicle needs to include that 15 and 14 mpg fuel economy ratings, especially since most vehicles do not achieve the rated milage in real life

@Boston Boy to be contrary here is all of my fuel expenses for my ‘15 4Runner. The highest mileage recorded was when new before any mods at 20.6 mpg. Once I did lift, tires, suspension, storage, etc. my mpg went down. I consider the average of 14.7 mpg for a now 6200 pound truck to be slightly above average for a comparable build from any other brand available in the US market.

For my use the Grenadier will surpass the 4Runner for mpg because I will not “mod” any of the factory parts. I’ve learned my lesson from the 4Runner ownership that cost in mods has little/no return. I have as much if not more expenses into the 4Runner as it sits now vs what the Grenadier costs new. The residual value on a factory utility truck will hold better that my modded 4Runner. Cost of fuel is moot for a purchaser of these vehicles.

 

[Dso715]

View attachment 7812844
@Boston Boy to be contrary here is all of my fuel expenses for my ‘15 4Runner. The highest mileage recorded was when new before any mods at 20.6 mpg. Once I did lift, tires, suspension, storage, etc. my mpg went down. I consider the average of 14.7 mpg for a now 6200 pound truck to be slightly above average for a comparable build from any other brand available in the US market.

For my use the Grenadier will surpass the 4Runner for mpg because I will not “mod” any of the factory parts. I’ve learned my lesson from the 4Runner ownership that cost in mods has little/no return. I have as much if not more expenses into the 4Runner as it sits now vs what the Grenadier costs new. The residual value on a factory utility truck will hold better that my modded 4Runner. Cost of fuel is moot for a purchaser of these vehicles.

Great point. It is a custom platform. With factory warranty. I’ve built rigs In past. I look at IG as a bargain when you look at components.

 

[Xrford]

Having to modify a vehicle to make it durable enough to survive a severe duty environment is costly, because you paid for the subpar part when you bought the vehicle and then you have to pay for the premium quality part you are replacing it with + any installation costs. That is why it is always cheaper in the long run to pay for quality once when you buy the vehicle. Looking at the quality/robust parts that come with IG, It is clear to me that the reliability will follow and the value is there. Also I think it will hold its re sale value well once the reliability is proven.

 

[globalgregors]

This whole project was launched with the idea of bringing out a defender 110 in the old style.

I think we need to remember that this was the Defender 110 as seen through the eyes of the UK’s wealthiest man, an enthusiast like many of us.

…with design and component choice leaning more Graz than Solihull.

 

[globalgregors]

I would NEVER purchase a live front axle over IFS for corrugations. I'm not saying an older patrol or the 7x landcruisers cant handle it, it's just sooooo much easier on the bits to not have to control all the unsprung weight, and control is soooo much better with much less driver fatigue. ifs and corrugations are like peanut butter and chocolate.

It’s possible that the corrugations we respectively have in mind here differ more than one might expect.

That said, reservoir shocks (that can shed accumulated heat); tyre pressure; speed; wheel diameter; and vehicle weight are all somewhat more impactful than axle type.

This observation based on Wrangler versus LR DS so all very apples<>oranges.

 

[Aurans]

Understood.....and Porsche 911 is basically the same design for the past 20-30 years so it is possible.

Also fleet/commercial/military sales can support IG.

If the quality is good and they fix these software issues (which I think they will) they should be able to sell their relatively low volumes globally. It will likely do better in some market vs others.

It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

Out of curiosity, I looked up 911 sales figures — about 8k to 10k (going up to 12k) per year on average.

 

[Aurans]

At the moment I think they are running 2 shifts a day 5 days a week, which gives them a capacity of 30,000 a year.
I think you are 100% correct that the demand for the Station Wagon model will start to taper off by 2025/26.
This is when the demand for the dual cab ute will kick in and we will see initial figures ramp up, taking up capacity in their production line.
As they will have the long wheel base chassis in full swing with the ute I am sure you will see a long wheelbase Utility and Station Wagon.
This will see new buyers and also existing owners trading up.
These can all be built on the production line at the same time.
2027/28 they plan to introduce a short wheelbase smaller electric version.
Again this will introduce new buyers and also existing owners who want a second vehicle for around town or for their partners.
2029/2030 they plan a hydrogen version which will again introduce new buyers, trade ups and multiple vehicle owners.
Remember that this is a very large, fully robotised factory, so it is relatively easy to reconfigure to different models
They are also still assembling MB Smart cars there until end of next year (???)
By 2030 a new/update version of the original SW will come out and no doubt we will see higher spec luxury models introduced.
View attachment 7812842

Totally agreed that they will continue to sell “vehicles” but that the current vehicle will see a taper in sales. I wasn’t counting on the other future models, just this one. I’m very curious how the petrol truck might do in the states, given how saturated the market is with Made is USA and established Japanese brands.

I certainly want IG to succeed because I want to pick up a slightly driven “LA limo”TM lease return in a few years. Maybe the price won’t come down, but I’ll risk it.

 

[Aurans]

There’s also the “iPad phenomenon” aspect of the IG to consider. Apple built the iPad so well that there’s very little reason to upgrade. It hurt sales. OS updates stopped supporting older hardware, forcing them into partial obsolescence. Obviously, an IG won’t have this software cycle issue (one hopes), but what if the IG is everything we hope it is — people will seldom, maybe never, upgrade. This is exacerbated by the average age of owners (per a poll on these forums) being mid 50s and up. For many, I’d say most, this is a once-in-a-lifetime purchase (unlike the dude with four Rolexes). There are only so many aging people with enough money who desperately want an better-than-Defender to sell to, and at some point, as with retro T-birds and muscle cars, that market completely vanishes. One day, the kids won’t know or care what a Defender was. Harley Davidson knows this all too well.

 

[ChasingOurTrunks]

Out of curiosity, I looked up 911 sales figures — about 8k to 10k (going up to 12k) per year on average.

I think perhaps they’d sell more if I could fit a bag of groceries in the back! But if I had one, I’d likely want an excuse to run out for milk, then come home. Then run out for bread, and come home. Then run out for sugar, and come home. Any excuse to spend more time behind the wheel!

How many and how long has the Ineos been on the road? I'm not quite sure we know if it is a Red Wing or a Walmart boot, yet. I sure hope it is more of a Nicks boot, as the places I plan on taking it are not going to be near a dealer or even a certified service center, whatever or wherever that might be. A Jeep will have support in most any town in the US. Minus 1 Volvo, I feel like all my cars/trucks/SUVs have been Walmart cars, basic maintenance took care of the Walmart cars. Keeping the Volvo happy got a tad bit more involved and considerably more expensive, before we let it go..... Funny, just looked out the window as the neighbors Tesla went by on a flatbed.

Fully agree - my comment is based on what I saw of the prototype. It’s incredibly stout - like the Redwing. But that’s just what I think. We won’t know for a while yet.

I don’t know what Nicks boots are if I’m being honest but I think we understand each other’s analogy, and I agree that access to service is important. From what I can see, the Gren is designed so that any independent shop should be able to fix anything on it, depending on parts availability. I’m OK even with niche parts from Italy if Ineos has the ability to get them to me quickly (I.e. 24-36 business hours). I’m watching the May long weekend pass by drip by drip from my motorbikes fork seals - ordered from a dealership on May 8th and am still waiting, which is a bit long as I assumed they’d have a common wear part (for a dirt/ADV bike) in stock but they did not. If I had known, I COULD have paid a bit more and got them in a couple of days. That’s what I need from Ineos, too - but anywhere in the world (preferably).

Thank god I’ve got my 4x4 as we are still having a great adventurous weekend! But my point stands - if it can be fixed by anyone who knows which end of a wrench to use, which is the claim/intent of the design is, AND if parts can get from A to B overnight, the relative proximity of dealerships is less relevant, especially a few years down the road once warranties expire.

But, I’m not thinking we’ll find too many Ineos-compatible parts at Wal Mart, so I get you there.

 

[painter]

This is exacerbated by the average age of owners (per a poll on these forums) being mid 50s and up. For many, I’d say most, this is a once-in-a-lifetime purchase (unlike the dude with four Rolexes). There are only so many aging people with enough money who desperately want an better-than-Defender to sell to, and at some point, as with retro T-birds and muscle cars, that market completely vanishes. One day, the kids won’t know or care what a Defender was.

Agreed. I'd add, imo there's also an ICE dinosaur component. Who knows what costs or other difficulties there will be to driving one of these in 15-20 years. And how that unknown might that affect future sales (even in the next few years)

 

[nobody_asked]

@Sekurt you say "I’ve learned my lesson from the 4Runner ownership that cost in mods has little/no return." Does this mean that you didn't need all the mods you put into the 4Runner? If this is so, then your MPG would be greater and you wouldn't lose the money in mods on a new 4Runner. So a $60K 4Runner TRD Pro (stock), probably more for the next Gen would get you everywhere an $80-90K IG would get you.

I am confident a 4Runner TRD Pro will get me to 90%+ of the places I will take it. Toyota has a proven track record (but even they will have their issues), dealer support and giant aftermarket support for around $20K less. Do I want to wait for the next Gen 4Runner? Will the IG hold it's value? Will the IG be reliable? Is the juice worth the squeeze? IDK... still trying to figure that part out.

@Xrford you say "Looking at the quality/robust parts that come with IG, It is clear to me that the reliability will follow and the value is there. Also I think it will hold its re sale value well once the reliability is proven." Though I agree in theory, that IA's partners quell some reliability concerns, this is just theory. I also agree with someone earlier that certified repair facilities are going to be at luxury car pricing. So if that reliability doesn't hold you will probably be paying a premium.

This is a question I struggle with because I really like the IG and I hope that it will be reliable. I say hope because I have no idea, especially since they already have some issues and I have never had, or known someone who has had luck with a BMW engine over 80-100k miles. That doesn't mean we're the rule, It's just my experience that gives me pause.

That's why I like this forum so much. So many varying opinions and experiences. It helps me validate and question my view to make a decision.

 

[ChasingOurTrunks]

View attachment 7812844

Great app - and I know it’s a Toyota, but I imagine after 105k miles you might be due for an oil change!!!

(Kidding - I know not everyone tracks that part, but I saw your $0.00 service costs and couldn’t resist).

I’m very particular about logging my Canyon - here’s mine so far; everything including over a grand in tires though it was used with low mileage so this isn’t 100% tracked:

 

[Ichabod]

@ChasingOurTrunks What app is that? Looks pretty nice.

 

[ChasingOurTrunks]

@ChasingOurTrunks What app is that? Looks pretty nice.

It’s called Fuelly. It has a free and a premium version. I have an iPhone and am not sure if it’s available on Android but I’m sure it is.

I find it super helpful — no more deciphering the smudged sharpie from the window sticker to know when oil was last changed for one thing. But, it also gives a real data-driven idea of what total cost of ownership looks like.

There has been nothing for mine that is untoward; I suffered from the “trans shudder” problem that the GM Canyon and Chev Colorado are known for — somehow the previously spec’d trans fluid was attracting water and causing a torque converter lock up problem; not an issue really just an annoyance, and a full flush of the fluid and replacing it with a new spec solves the problem. For me that just so happened to occur when it was due for a fluid swap anyway, so the cost wasn’t “extra” but for some Canyon/Colorado owners, that would be an extra maintenance cost of about $800 at the dealership, but otherwise everything tracked is just normal hard-wear service intervals.

Edit: my Canyon had 16k kms on it or so when I got it. I may have previously said in this very thread and elsewhere that it only had 6k, but that may have been my motorbike; I bought both used years ago and the memory isn’t as good as it once was. There used to be great value in buying low mileage used — hopefully there will be again so I can get my Gren!

 

[Sekurt]

@Sekurt you say "I’ve learned my lesson from the 4Runner ownership that cost in mods has little/no return." Does this mean that you didn't need all the mods you put into the 4Runner? If this is so, then your MPG would be greater and you wouldn't lose the money in mods on a new 4Runner. So a $60K 4Runner TRD Pro (stock), probably more for the next Gen would get you everywhere an $80-90K IG would get you.

I am confident a 4Runner TRD Pro will get me to 90%+ of the places I will take it. Toyota has a proven track record (but even they will have their issues), dealer support and giant aftermarket support for around $20K less. Do I want to wait for the next Gen 4Runner? Will the IG hold it's value? Will the IG be reliable? Is the juice worth the squeeze? IDK... still trying to figure that part out.

@Xrford you say "Looking at the quality/robust parts that come with IG, It is clear to me that the reliability will follow and the value is there. Also I think it will hold its re sale value well once the reliability is proven." Though I agree in theory, that IA's partners quell some reliability concerns, this is just theory. I also agree with someone earlier that certified repair facilities are going to be at luxury car pricing. So if that reliability doesn't hold you will probably be paying a premium.

This is a question I struggle with because I really like the IG and I hope that it will be reliable. I say hope because I have no idea, especially since they already have some issues and I have never had, or known someone who has had luck with a BMW engine over 80-100k miles. That doesn't mean we're the rule, It's just my experience that gives me pause.

That's why I like this forum so much. So many varying opinions and experiences. It helps me validate and question my view to make a decision.

@nobody_asked my intent for the comment of “little/no return” implies money spent on upgrades vs return in value when sold. The Grenadier if not moded to an inch of its life with 3rd party upgrades will retain value better than my moded out 4Runner because most mods done by me to the 4Runner are stock (if selected for build) on the Grenadier. As I said in my post, I’ve easily got as much or more into the 4Runner as my built Grenadier at 90k-ish. To me the value is there spending the 90k up front and having factory warranty.

I had an electrical gremlin recently with the 4Runner and decided to take it to the dealer because I figured the shear volume they work on it might be a known issue. End result was they wouldn’t touch it because of all the “aftermarket” accessories. Again, this won’t be an issue with spending the money upfront on my Grenadier build.