On the Grenadier Fence in Brisbane

[DesertGecko]

Did they say if their demo was ready for test drives yet mate?

They pointed to the demo. I think they are busy with customer cars. He said a couple of weeks.

 

[Bobby Mac]

So the vet I take the dog to is near the Grenadier showroom in BNE. So i popped in.. why though?

Anyway good to see some production cars. They looked great. A bit better finished where you could see although not much. Big difference under the car though. Clearly all the little details attended to.

Spoke to the salesman. "did you order your car?". I'm like "No dude.. I was waiting for a test drive" (Which they promised in dec 22, march, and then June and still hasn't happened). He was clearly a bit concerned about the new prices.

I'm like "oh well. no rush now then!". He did say the wait times were reducing. Order now for a November build. I really do think that they are going to struggle to get new orders at those prices. Shoulder shrug. Will be interesting to watch from the side lines.

At least now there is no rush I can watch and see how things actually pan out in the real world. Let them sort the bugs and the aftermarket step up. He said the petrol doesn't actually use that much more than the diesel. Without the adblue tank and gubbins it might be possible to fit a bigger tank to the petrol so might be actually a good option. I'm open to the idea of going petrol if they can get a big enough tank in.

Were you there this morning? - I saw someone with a lady and a dog as I was dropping my plates off for my beast‘s delivery on Fri. I was driving the Def 130 in the car park.

 

[DesertGecko]

Most owners are reporting they absolutely love the vehicle so I think the orders will pick up again as the 'watchers' keep reading just how good the vehicle is. I've got a good feeling about it, has a good chance to be the off-road 'king'. All hinges of course on reliability of the main components. Unlikely that engines and trans will play up but it could be game over if we start seeing issues. Those two things are what most seem to focus on when considering a brand.
First thing I thought of when the price went up again was how pissed off the dealers would be after heavily investing and the showrooms a ghost town for the last 6mths.

Regardless of what you think of the price rises.. I don't think there is any doubt that they will sell less at the newer prices than they would have at launch prices. Which frankly I would have thought would have been as many as they could have built. So I reckon the dealers would be pretty disappointed.

 

[TheDocAUS]

They pointed to the demo. I think they are busy with customer cars. He said a couple of weeks.

Purnell Adventure has a petrol car from INEOS, but they are awaiting formal approval from INEOS to use it as a demonstrator (as of Monday this week).

 

[DesertGecko]

Were you there this morning? - I saw someone with a lady and a dog as I was dropping my plates off for my beast‘s delivery on Fri. I was driving the Def 130 in the car park.

That was me! I looked at your defender!

I'm flattered that you called my dog.. a dog. Which I think is generous.

 

[James]

Regardless of what you think of the price rises.. I don't think there is any doubt that they will sell less at the newer prices than they would have at launch prices. Which frankly I would have thought would have been as many as they could have built. So I reckon the dealers would be pretty disappointed.

I think there is doubt over that; they may not sell fewer cars at this price. They are not making that many, and are limited by regulation in some core markets. If you were going to sell all you made that year, and you still sell all you made that year, then the price has not affected volume. It is likely a price inelastic product, but more to the point the volumes are unlikely to saturate the market. The units may go to different people, or shift which markets get allocations…
I dont argue that the 2 price increases are significant, and put the car out of reach for some. but with inflation and energy prices, plus input costs changes in europe as they are, they’re also inevitable. I think other cars will have to follow suit, and the extremely limited alternatives for the very niche core market for Grenadiers, it may make no difference at all. Or not. We will see.

 

[DesertGecko]

I think there is doubt over that; they may not sell fewer cars at this price. They are not making that many, and are limited by regulation in some core markets. If you were going to sell all you made that year, and you still sell all you made that year, then the price has not affected volume. It is likely a price inelastic product, but more to the point the volumes are unlikely to saturate the market. The units may go to different people, or shift which markets get allocations…
I dont argue that the 2 price increases are significant, and put the car out of reach for some. but with inflation and energy prices, plus input costs changes in europe as they are, they’re also inevitable. I think other cars will have to follow suit, and the extremely limited alternatives for the very niche core market for Grenadiers, it may make no difference at all. Or not. We will see.

I agree that ineos may not initially have the supply - and that they might just move allocation around to different markets. I'm not really in a position to comment on the 4x4 market elsewhere.

I do not wish to make this thread about Elon Musk, or electric vehicles (please please!). At one of their talks he said that they had noted that demand for EV's was highly elastic. Recently we have seen Tesla cut prices all around the world and in Australia. The results have been they are now the number one selling car in Europe.. and basically selling up a storm. Locally more expensive EV's like those from Hyundai have basically just stopped selling. The people who really wanted one have already bought them, and now anyone who wants an EV is buying a Tesla.

That's what demand elasticity is. There will be people that will buy a thing at any price and I don't doubt that they will continue to order at these prices. The question is how many. Perhaps ineos only a tiny number of cars to sell.. in which case I think they will manage to sell them. I don't think it will help support of the vehicle at very low volumes though.

IMHO that's exactly what ineos have. A unique and specialized vehicle at a very premium price. They are not a commodity vehicle. Business will buy elsewhere for their fleets of trucks. It's so far from utility prices that it's now a luxury good so demand will behave elastically. There is competition for this vehicle and people can shop elsewhere.

Yes. Time will tell.

 

[James]

Interesting analogy. Musk initially made the roadster, then s and x for economic markets more like grenadier’s, in order to create the manufacturing base for the 3 and y to be mass market cars, which yes are absolutely elastic/volume sales propositions.
I think you hit the nail on the head, while they are supply constrained, it is not going to hurt them (although I really dont believe they wanted to increase price twice, especially at this stage).
if the original business case volumes were accurately reported, they are designed to be profitable at very low volumes, that might mean they can still be supply limited, rather than demand limited. That’s a very nice place to be for Ineos, with lots of options, if they pull it off.
Anyway
As a ‘real’ defender owner too, I hope to share a long chat over a billy with you under a big sky sometime, whatever the vehicles that got us there are!

 

[DesertGecko]

Interesting analogy. Musk initially made the roadster, then s and x for economic markets more like grenadier’s, in order to create the manufacturing base for the 3 and y to be mass market cars, which yes are absolutely elastic/volume sales propositions.
I think you hit the nail on the head, while they are supply constrained, it is not going to hurt them (although I really dont believe they wanted to increase price twice, especially at this stage).
if the original business case volumes were accurately reported, they are designed to be profitable at very low volumes, that might mean they can still be supply limited, rather than demand limited. That’s a very nice place to be for Ineos, with lots of options, if they pull it off.
Anyway
As a ‘real’ defender owner too, I hope to share a long chat over a billy with you under a big sky sometime, whatever the vehicles that got us there are!

When I bought the TD5.. they were only selling a couple of hundred defenders a year. People were buying discoveries instead. Anyway.. it kind of means that once off the beaten track you have to be self supporting. Yes you can get bits mailed to places, but chances are mechanics won't have the part you need locally.

When the grenadier was initially released I thought they could sell tens of thousands of them at the launch price. I thought "Awesome..we're going to have support in the outback". I'd hoped they would end up in fleets in the outback which would have been awesome for support. If they only sell 500 or a thousand cars a year I suspect it might not pan out that way. Shame. Time will tell.

 

[OzGrenny]

When I bought the TD5.. they were only selling a couple of hundred defenders a year. People were buying discoveries instead. Anyway.. it kind of means that once off the beaten track you have to be self supporting. Yes you can get bits mailed to places, but chances are mechanics won't have the part you need locally.

When the grenadier was initially released I thought they could sell tens of thousands of them at the launch price. I thought "Awesome..we're going to have support in the outback". I'd hoped they would end up in fleets in the outback which would have been awesome for support. If they only sell 500 or a thousand cars a year I suspect it might not pan out that way. Shame. Time will tell.

Their plan was never to sell thousands and thousands into Australia per year like Toyota does. INEOS are limited to building approx. 30,000 vehicles per year globally due to their status as a low-volume manufacturer.

 

[Solmanic]

I still think the correct value comparison for the Grenadier is (or was, depending on which country you’re in) the G-Wagen Professional, and they used to START at A$120K (and that was only for a cab-chassis). Consequently I think the current, increased price for the Grenadier is about right. The Grenadier has the same general layout, similarly over engineered, is slightly bigger and has way more interior comfort. Even if I hadn’t got in early I would still be considering one at the new price.

 

[MarkH]

They are certainly ramping up the advertising on social media of late. Maybe planned or maybe due to a stall in orders.

 

[grenadierboy]

I agree that ineos may not initially have the supply - and that they might just move allocation around to different markets. I'm not really in a position to comment on the 4x4 market elsewhere.

I do not wish to make this thread about Elon Musk, or electric vehicles (please please!). At one of their talks he said that they had noted that demand for EV's was highly elastic. Recently we have seen Tesla cut prices all around the world and in Australia. The results have been they are now the number one selling car in Europe.. and basically selling up a storm. Locally more expensive EV's like those from Hyundai have basically just stopped selling. The people who really wanted one have already bought them, and now anyone who wants an EV is buying a Tesla.

That's what demand elasticity is. There will be people that will buy a thing at any price and I don't doubt that they will continue to order at these prices. The question is how many. Perhaps ineos only a tiny number of cars to sell.. in which case I think they will manage to sell them. I don't think it will help support of the vehicle at very low volumes though.

IMHO that's exactly what ineos have. A unique and specialized vehicle at a very premium price. They are not a commodity vehicle. Business will buy elsewhere for their fleets of trucks. It's so far from utility prices that it's now a luxury good so demand will behave elastically. There is competition for this vehicle and people can shop elsewhere.

Yes. Time will tell.

Agree - clearly not a commodity vehicle because they don't want to build 350,000 of them a year.

However, I'm not sure the Grenadier is, as you say, a "very premium price" because being a niche product means that to permit an accurate comparison of pricing against other cars, you need to take an existing 4x4 vehicle and add a number of components. I think the final a price point of the alternative 4x4 with the extra components, will not be that far away from the, admittedly expensive Grenadier price.

 

[Sam]

...He did say the wait times were reducing. Order now for a November build. I really do think that they are going to struggle to get new orders at those prices. ...

This (November) is highly dubious. My build now September and i've been waiting since June '22.

So sales person reckons they'll process 13months worth of orders in 2 months...?

 

[DesertGecko]

This (November) is highly dubious. My build now September and i've been waiting since June '22.

So sales person reckons they'll process 13months worth of orders in 2 months...?

That's what he said. (!)

 

[DesertGecko]

They are certainly ramping up the advertising on social media of late. Maybe planned or maybe due to a stall in orders.

It could just be a new organisation getting up to speed too.

 

[DesertGecko]

I still think the correct value comparison for the Grenadier is (or was, depending on which country you’re in) the G-Wagen Professional, and they used to START at A$120K (and that was only for a cab-chassis). Consequently I think the current, increased price for the Grenadier is about right. The Grenadier has the same general layout, similarly over engineered, is slightly bigger and has way more interior comfort. Even if I hadn’t got in early I would still be considering one at the new price.

It's funny.. because the grenadier has always been an original Defender replacement. Yet - as you're aware the original defender was one of the cheapest vehicles on the market.

My car was 1/3 cheaper than a Troopy when I bought it. Now supply issues for the troopy aside, you could pretty much buy two troopies for one grenadier.

Perhaps the grenadier is a g-wagon replacement because it sure isn't a defender replacement.

Which is totally ok of course.

 

[TheDocAUS]

It's funny.. because the grenadier has always been an original Defender replacement. Yet - as you're aware the original defender was one of the cheapest vehicles on the market.

My car was 1/3 cheaper than a Troopy when I bought it. Now supply issues for the troopy aside, you could pretty much buy two troopies for one grenadier.

Perhaps the grenadier is a g-wagon replacement because it sure isn't a defender replacement.

Which is totally ok of course.

You must be looking at different price list to me, to get 2 Troopies for the price of one Grenadier.

Plus new 70 series Toyotas have a 4 year wait list in Australia, that is what is being reported and you need to sign a waiver so Toyota can increase the price and change the specs. No thanks.

I looked at the 70 series back in March and quickly came to the conclusion they were over priced for what you got. My mate who was in Toyota spares for over 25 years and said stay clear of them, he suggested the Hilux instead.

Once I decided to buy I placed my order. As the saying goes, if you sit on the fence you just get a paling up your rear end - like a price rise.

 

[Solmanic]

It's funny.. because the grenadier has always been an original Defender replacement. Yet - as you're aware the original defender was one of the cheapest vehicles on the market.

My car was 1/3 cheaper than a Troopy when I bought it. Now supply issues for the troopy aside, you could pretty much buy two troopies for one grenadier.

Perhaps the grenadier is a g-wagon replacement because it sure isn't a defender replacement.

Which is totally ok of course.

Yep, that's exactly what I'm saying. It only looks like an original Defender with the same general layout, but beyond that there are very few similarities. Only time will tell if the durability of its components matches the G-Professional. And just as a reminder, the G-Professional became the original Defender replacement for our army in about 2011 when Land Rover could no longer commit to the OD keeping up with safety requirements, opting to systematically abandon those types of commercial markets altogether until the OD ceased production.

It would have been really interesting to see what price-point Land Rover might have placed a Grenadier type of update to the Defender had they tried. I guarantee it would have been a lot more than the AU$50-60K-odd many of the last OD buyers paid (not counting the rush of bizarre V8-leather bound limited editions they shovelled out in the last year of production).

 

[James]

Agree Solmanic. And I think we kind of know how they would have priced a defender replacement, which is basically as they have done. I dont think the vehicles underlying costs are as relevant to the pricing as the marketing decisions about how to extract maximum revenue for a market segment (and land rover are masters at segmenting 4wd markets). Loads of very highly priced options, on a quite high base. Of course a base new defender, and a base rangie would cost almost the same to produce - it is not a cost plus equation.

Land Rover are also trying to sell high numbers of their cars, not a limited number to a niche. They are selling well, better than theyve been able to deliver, and they are still struggling to survive financially, looking to be acquired. All of this is powerful data to suggest that there is not viable path to a defender/grenadier quality utility offering at a meaningfully lower price. The recent rises are much more to do with covid-ukraine-energy costs-inflation, and are unfortunate, but will percolate through everything soon.

Exceptions (to the price points) would have to be Chinese or Indian sourced manufacture and design. Their economics might stack up, but they would have little incentive not to participate in higher margins, and they’re aiming at the mass market anyway. US makers maybe could, but dont - that’s not an accident, it’s their deep analysis and understanding of their market. They want return. Jim wants a good vehicle. His return is possible because he only wants a small niche.