Americas Dealer inventory increasing… good or bad?

bikesandguitars · Jun 14, 2024

Reducs said:
Let me preface this by saying I want Ineos and the Grenadier to be successful! But I keep having the nagging feeling we might be looking at a Lotus Elise type trajectory.

Wonderful idea, enthusiasts loved it, US wanted it, then...

US Sales (Elise/Exige)
2005 - 3,321
2006 - 1,417
2007 - 735
2008 - 425
2009 - 146
2010 - 95
2011 (final edition) - 186

I know I'm comparing apples and Brussel sprouts, but is anyone else concerned that once the niche market is supplied it's going to be rough going for Sir Jim? I know Arcane and Fusilier and hydrogen and they haven't advertised and ?. I'm just being realistic and wondering how big the market really is? The DFW and Houston dealers are each sitting on ~$2M worth of passed over trucks currently available.

Just wondering aloud.

Dealer inventory is high everywhere. The economy is not great. Interest rates are high. Cars are expensive. Credit is maxed out. The warning signs are everywhere.

Check the CarEdge link provided. Toyota, as usual, was right about resisting the move to EV’s. No one wants them. Meanwhile, Toyota is crushing the competition with gas/hybrid. OTOH, Stellantis is getting killed with their 4xe plug-in hybrid and ridiculous pricing.

I think Ineos is in it for the long haul. The Grenadier is their niche, highly specialized vehicle. It’s their statement. Just like Tesla getting attention and lots of free press with their take on the classic British roadster and then moving on to more mainstream offerings, the Grenadier is not meant to be Ineos mass market best seller. It’s a statement on the quality and performance of what they can build and what’s next. It’s not an SUV or a family truckster. It’s a serious off-roader. The target market is the well heeled, overlander, outdooorsy, serious weekend warrior type.

Keep in mind that if Ineos was a public company, it would be worth $40 -$60 billion. Jim Ratcliffe can loan freely to Ineos Automotive. It’s not like they have to wait for a second round of funding. The world’s a little different when your credit score is unimpeachable.

The Grenadier is a future classic. Patience is a virtue.

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Reducs · Jun 14, 2024

BroncoBilly said:
WeissachIneos in Vancouver has a 2007 Lotus Exige sitting beside a Grenadier in their showroom. Not foreshadowing I hope.

Is there a BOGO coupon on their website?

Cheshire cat · Jun 14, 2024

Reducs said:
Let me preface this by saying I want Ineos and the Grenadier to be successful! But I keep having the nagging feeling we might be looking at a Lotus Elise type trajectory.

Wonderful idea, enthusiasts loved it, US wanted it, then...

US Sales (Elise/Exige)
2005 - 3,321
2006 - 1,417
2007 - 735
2008 - 425
2009 - 146
2010 - 95
2011 (final edition) - 186

I know I'm comparing apples and Brussel sprouts, but is anyone else concerned that once the niche market is supplied it's going to be rough going for Sir Jim? I know Arcane and Fusilier and hydrogen and they haven't advertised and ?. I'm just being realistic and wondering how big the market really is? The DFW and Houston dealers are each sitting on ~$2M worth of passed over trucks currently available.

Just wondering aloud.

Whilst there is still such a massive demand for old Defenders and G Wagons which can sell at 200 - 300 thousand dollars a piece, I would say that demand for the Grenadier will grow.

Tom D · Jun 14, 2024

Reducs said:
Let me preface this by saying I want Ineos and the Grenadier to be successful! But I keep having the nagging feeling we might be looking at a Lotus Elise type trajectory.

Wonderful idea, enthusiasts loved it, US wanted it, then...

US Sales (Elise/Exige)
2005 - 3,321
2006 - 1,417
2007 - 735
2008 - 425
2009 - 146
2010 - 95
2011 (final edition) - 186

I know I'm comparing apples and Brussel sprouts, but is anyone else concerned that once the niche market is supplied it's going to be rough going for Sir Jim? I know Arcane and Fusilier and hydrogen and they haven't advertised and ?. I'm just being realistic and wondering how big the market really is? The DFW and Houston dealers are each sitting on ~$2M worth of passed over trucks currently available.

Just wondering aloud.

I have a similar concern, I think Australia will probably end up being the biggest market. I’d say that 80% of buyers wanted an old Defender / 70 series cruiser equivalent, and I think within certain parameters that’s what we have got. INEOS’s problem is that maybe 80% of that 80% want to keep the car for a long time. I wont be persuaded to buy another in 2 or 3 or even 5 years time just because there’s a new face lifted version or some new tech. I didn’t want any tech in the first place. So if over half of the owners want to keep the car for 10 years that doesn’t help with sales, It will be good for the re-sale market though.

I think most of the cars for sale right now are from the 20% of owners who bought on a whim or didn’t really know what they were buying, these cars will slowly be bought up by 80%ers like me who want to keep the car for a long time. The future of the second hand market looks good so long as they continue to sell enough to make the whole project viable.
And thats the big question, can they? If they get into the developing world in a big way maybe they can, but I think it will always be a niche car in the west. I think its a great vehicle, I love mine, but I’m not your average buyer I think.

bikesandguitars · Jun 14, 2024

Tom D said:
I have a similar concern, I think Australia will probably end up being the biggest market. I’d say that 80% of buyers wanted an old Defender / 70 series cruiser equivalent, and I think within certain parameters that’s what we have got. INEOS’s problem is that maybe 80% of that 80% want to keep the car for a long time. I wont be persuaded to buy another in 2 or 3 or even 5 years time just because there’s a new face lifted version or some new tech. I didn’t want any tech in the first place. So if over half of the owners want to keep the car for 10 years that doesn’t help with sales, It will be good for the re-sale market though.

I think most of the cars for sale right now are from the 20% of owners who bought on a whim or didn’t really know what they were buying, these cars will slowly be bought up by 80%ers like me who want to keep the car for a long time. The future of the second hand market looks good so long as they continue to sell enough to make the whole project viable.
And thats the big question, can they? If they get into the developing world in a big way maybe they can, but I think it will always be a niche car in the west. I think its a great vehicle, I love mine, but I’m not your average buyer I think.

They’re offering an incentive on aftermarket parts in Australia.

skibum35 · Jun 14, 2024

Wow........ they should throw in a service manual.

Reducs · Jun 14, 2024

Tom D said:
I think most of the cars for sale right now are from the 20% of owners who bought on a whim or didn’t really know what they were buying, these cars will slowly be bought up by 80%ers like me who want to keep the car for a long time. The future of the second hand market looks good so long as they continue to sell enough to make the whole project viable.

This is the sweet spot. When they eventually end up with the right owner, they'll be cherished, kept forever, and running with bailing wire and bungee cords!

Krabby · Jun 16, 2024

Reducs said:
This is the sweet spot. When they eventually end up with the right owner, they'll be cherished, kept forever, and running with baling wire and bungee cords!

I used a bungee cord as a return “spring” on my 88’s clutch pedal when the actual spring mount busted. Drove it like that for years.

Guardian · Jun 17, 2024

Has anyone been following the Grenadiers on the Bringatrailer auction site (US)?
The most recent listing was a Trial Master with 3,000 miles that sold for $15,000 less than invoice.

anand · Jun 17, 2024

Guardian said:
Has anyone been following the Grenadiers on the Bringatrailer auction site (US)?
The most recent listing was a Trial Master with 3,000 miles that sold for $15,000 less than invoice.

It would be silly for someone to bid one above sticker (or even at sticker) given that there are plenty to choose from and no dealers are doing mark ups...

There's no incentive that I can think of for someone to buy a used Grenadier at the moment instead of a new one

bikesandguitars · Jun 17, 2024

Guardian said:
Has anyone been following the Grenadiers on the Bringatrailer auction site (US)?
The most recent listing was a Trial Master with 3,000 miles that sold for $15,000 less than invoice.

A Field Master sold at $110,000 in February. Another sold for $95,000 in March. The demand is not going to decline. There’s about to be a true advertising campaign.

https://bringatrailer.com/listing/2024-ineos-grenadier-6/#comments-anchor

Catpaw4x4 · Jun 17, 2024

Well that's essentially $20k over the invoice. Southern California what can one say ....

Cheshire cat · Jun 17, 2024

For me, not sure why prices should matter that much. This purchase was heartfelt and nothing to do with trading in two or three years later. Anything these vehicles are doing price wise is probably within what is happening to the market in general. I can once again even negotiate discount on a Porsche 911. No longer of any use to me, having sank all my cash in a Grenadier.

dreamalaska · Jun 17, 2024

Guardian, yes, I track the used “for sale” market and followed the bidding on that BAT auction sale. The days of the fly-by-night flippers are over, though that seller was not in that category (view the real Defenders in the pics). Reality is now adjusting to the mean. For clarification, the $15k was off MSRP, not invoice. For invoice numbers, JDPOWER now has the dealer invoice pricing uploaded.

There are echos in the US car market with pre-great recession trends. Too early to tell if it’s temporary or more long lasting. I suspect more long-lasting. CDJR and Ford’s financial reporting numbers coming up will shed a sliver of light on current trends.

bikesandguitars · Jun 18, 2024

Cheshire cat said:
For me, not sure why prices should matter that much. This purchase was heartfelt and nothing to do with trading in two or three years later. Anything these vehicles are doing price wise is probably within what is happening to the market in general. I can once again even negotiate discount on a Porsche 911. No longer of any use to me, having sank all my cash in a Grenadier.

I agree. I feel I got a good deal for what I was looking for - a capable, solid axle, reliable off-roader that didn’t have a “Rubicon” label on the hood.

I believe the pricing and discounting discussion was based on foretelling the demise of Ineos’ automotive division.

It will be interesting to see what happens when Ineos begins proper advertising for the Grenadier. The new commercial should generate quite a bit of dealership activity. I believe at least 95% of the general public in the U.S. does not know that this vehicle exists. Even when off-roading with other enthusiasts, most of them were under the impression I brought a fully restored LR110.

The fact that Ineos hit their 2024 sales goal while staying under the radar is remarkable.

C64_forever · Jun 18, 2024

Reducs said:
Let me preface this by saying I want Ineos and the Grenadier to be successful! But I keep having the nagging feeling we might be looking at a Lotus Elise type trajectory.

Wonderful idea, enthusiasts loved it, US wanted it, then...

US Sales (Elise/Exige)
2005 - 3,321
2006 - 1,417
2007 - 735
2008 - 425
2009 - 146
2010 - 95
2011 (final edition) - 186

I know I'm comparing apples and Brussel sprouts, but is anyone else concerned that once the niche market is supplied it's going to be rough going for Sir Jim? I know Arcane and Fusilier and hydrogen and they haven't advertised and ?. I'm just being realistic and wondering how big the market really is? The DFW and Houston dealers are each sitting on ~$2M worth of passed over trucks currently available.

Just wondering aloud.

Great point on the Elise. I just sold mine last November. It was a 2005 model I bought in 2012 with 3k miles. Pristine. I drove it until last November with 20k in the odometer. I bought for 33k in 2012 and sold for 44k in 2023. If that happens to our Ineos, that would not be the worst possible outcome.

Separately, on the incentives point some of you are making, I guess I think they are par for the course and do not let them bother me. Kind of like buying a stock at $100 and then seeing it go down to $90. Oh well. Also, having seen the Tesla discounts on the model Y (which I bought at the freaking top of the market in December 2022) the small incentives Ineos offer do not bother me. Just my $0.02

Tjhappel · Jun 18, 2024

Catpaw4x4 said:
There are a few of us on here gentlemen .
Outside of those of “us” in the know (and original reservation holders), I haven’t seen any commercial ads regarding the Grenadier. Could Ineos be building up inventory prior to a marketing campaign? Shipping over “inventory” along with reservations. Also still sorting out the issues of warranty work, road side assistance (yes that has been solved), etc prior to marketing. Dealers still seem to working issues out.

I’ve had one ordered since day one, essentially fully loaded 93k build and nothing yet! Nothing scarier than going by mossy ineos and seeing 150 in stock…

Tjhappel · Jun 18, 2024

Guardian said:
Has anyone been following the Grenadiers on the Bringatrailer auction site (US)?
The most recent listing was a Trial Master with 3,000 miles that sold for $15,000 less than invoice.

Manheim has same exact results…. The only issue is finding a loaded build, getting a less expensive or off color unit is not that hard but to get winch lockers dual paint etc.. still hard

AWo · Jun 18, 2024

Reducs said:
Let me preface this by saying I want Ineos and the Grenadier to be successful! But I keep having the nagging feeling we might be looking at a Lotus Elise type trajectory.

Wonderful idea, enthusiasts loved it, US wanted it, then...

US Sales (Elise/Exige)
2005 - 3,321
2006 - 1,417
2007 - 735
2008 - 425
2009 - 146
2010 - 95
2011 (final edition) - 186

I know I'm comparing apples and Brussel sprouts, but is anyone else concerned that once the niche market is supplied it's going to be rough going for Sir Jim? I know Arcane and Fusilier and hydrogen and they haven't advertised and ?. I'm just being realistic and wondering how big the market really is? The DFW and Houston dealers are each sitting on ~$2M worth of passed over trucks currently available.

Just wondering aloud.

Interesting.

The next modell to be released should be the full electric Fusilier. However, from what I see and read in the automotive press, the E-car market is declining. Fisker is dead (announced today, the e-cars were manufactured at Magna). Tesla decreases prices and big fleets like Hertz, Sixt, etc. throw out their e-cars, especially Tesla. They have stopped production in Grünheide, Mexico and some other plants. All that generates a huge price pressure, The dealers must see to get at least some money for their stock e-cars, or it will be new crap, zero value, some time ahead. GM decreases the number of e-cars build in the US, Ford has trouble in its Cologne e-car central to sell their e-cars, in Germany and Italy the sales numbers for e-cars drop significantly, only in France they are increasing. In Norway, spearhead of e-mobility the sales numbers decrease, as well. Mercedes-Benz stopped their e-plattform for the luxury class. ICE cars have an average discount of 17% in Europe, e-cars 11% which also shift the sales towards ICE cars.

Maybe the increasing emission regulations in 2025 will turn this market development.

It will be interesting, what that would mean for the Fusilier.

BTW, Lynn Calder stated in an interview that in the first year Ineos wanted only sell to the early adopters (whoever belives that). Now, 2024 they will serve all customers and finally reach 30.000 units. She also admitted, that in the last year they only build half as much. Then I ask why they requested parts for 30.000 units at the suppliers in 2023 if they didn't want to sell to everyone...? However, following her statements, everything is running according to the plan.

She also stated that they start to sell in China this year....with a Grenadier with range extender.

AWo

Catpaw4x4 · Jun 18, 2024

Tjhappel said:
I’ve had one ordered since day one, essentially fully loaded 93k build and nothing yet! Nothing scarier than going by mossy ineos and seeing 150 in stock…

HI! When you say "Day One", were you a reservation hand raiser? Or are you meaning from point of when ordering was opened online?

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