Where is IA in five years? What do you think?

[DCPU]

It's a niche vehicle.

It certainly is, so

American buyers are typically picky.

I'm not sure such generalisations are relevant?

 

[DCPU]

Lotus had plenty of issues the first year or two.

Lotus had people in key positions in aftersales and engineering who were not afraid to engage with the owners. A very different approach to that currently being employed by Ineos.

 

[DCPU]

IA have bought a plant thats very good at making vehicles with an established track record. The adage that you got a Friday car or a Monday car hopefully won't apply here, fingers crossed.

It's something that's puzzled me as I look at a badly tightened earth cable, a brake hose twisted, a mud flap put on wrong, broken trim clips, cables routed poorly, coolant hoses not placed in retaining clips or spare metal clips left in the fuel tank guard (to list just a few...).

I've had a couple of Smarts from the factory and the quality has been spot on. I've done the same checks on these and only ever found one or two things I could even be slightly critical about.

Yet it's the same factory, so how is that so?

I'm now wondering how many people jumped ship when the first announcements from MB that the plant might close? How many stayed on the Smart production line, or moved to the MB sub assemblies?

Are Grenadiers being built by people entirely new to vehicle assembly? All the above errors could point to that being the case.

Their track record makes explaining the mistakes they are making all that harder to understand.

What concerns me long term is first and foremost parts availability. Most of the bits that will need replacing apart from bodywork etc are off the shelf with some fettling obviously for this vehicle. (any chassis can be welded into submission with enough steel) Pretty soon, you'll see pattern pieces arrive hopefully, when the tail lights are on eBay for 150 bucks you know you're good for future supply. However it's the electronic parts that I'm raising an eyebrow at, however we swing it, the interface is bespoke to IA and this is an electronic vehicle. However, to what degree you can still drive it when it's all gone to s**t then I don't know.

This is my underlying concern. Despite the high level project philosophy of no unnecessary electronics, there appears to be several tiers of "unnecessary" electronics. Software interaction for the diff locks and, for God's sake, a NATO socket.

ASPW did a thing on his channel where his LC had a fit when it lost an abs sensor or the like and he said a New Defender would be in limp mode and essentially bottom out in the bush, would this happen here with the Grenadier? Thats the question.

Remember that was partly refuted by Powerful UK.

 

[JonSutton]

IMO it’ll come down to cash. Ineos have spent a great deal of money to date which will only be recouped big scale from chassis profit.
Ineos haven’t grown to success by wasting money, they’ll want a payback, break even at least.
I guess that unit chassis profit will be something like €16-18k at current listed selling prices. There will be some agency/dealer cost to suck up so say €10k unit profit.

30k units a year built & sold suggests a profitable (cash +ve) business but a slow payback, especially if we assume they could never sell Hambach plant for what it cost, have to write the cost off against p&l, they continue to incur chunky development costs and have to market the vehicles.

If they give up or fail then the issue for owners will likely be the unique parts - body/trim/dash/firewall, etc. Dedicated Saab or Rover owners will testify to parts supply and I suspect the park for those brands was larger but vehicle life cycle much shorter. Parts are tricky, even old Land Rover parts can be tricky.

Gut feel is that at some point the global economy will squeeze and Ineos will face difficult choices, hopefully without pressure from their funders. They need IA to be stable if/when the squeeze comes.

For me they will be around in ten years if they sort the niggles quickly and before they release many more vehicles.
That’s what I’d do, fix the issues this summer and press on again in the Autumn because the vehicle looks and feels ace.
I’d hire some very good customer facing people, ideally multi-lingual folk with technical speaking skills, an empathetic nature and make sure I was open about the issues being faced. Train them up rigorously. Head in sand = failure I think.

Don’t get me wrong, I’ve been in since early days and am looking forward to getting ’my truck’ but I’ll not put up with shoddy build and niggly faults. Mechanical failures I can live with hoping that IA have a parts supply system in place.

I wish Ineos the very best for continuing this project to long term success.

 

[AWo]

he advantage for INEOS is that a) it is a Private company so doesn’t have to answer to shareholders and b) it is a passion project for the owner.

Hmmm, I don't agree. There are no shareholders on stock exchange, but Ineos' growth is mainly by buying and selling companys and business units. That means banks are involved. Many banks. They of course look at how the business runs and if necessary request actions. It is unclear if the chemical business funds the Grenadier and all the other acquisitions of sports clubs, race boats, Formula One etc. which doesn't earn money for the Ineos Holding. But if, all banks giving credits to the chemical business have a potential interest in knowing what is going on. I don't think that Ratcliffe spends his personal money in the Grenadier.

And the dependencies continue. Suppliers for the Grenadier have to commit for a year. So if you produce the mirrors and Ineos comes to you and asks you to sign that you will deliver 70,000 mirrors next year, these companies also have to talk to their bank to pre-finance the production (knowing the risk that you can't sell certain parts to others if Ineos fails). That all creates dependencies. And if suppliers refuse you you loose time (search a new supplier) and maybe you also loose quality.

AWo

 

[DDG]

Again, no offense meant to our US brethren, but just giving you an Australian context in terms of what vehicles we have received from the US market, and it hasn’t been flattering to you.

Absolutely no offense taken by this American. I’ve never understood the American auto industry; particularly since about 1971.

 

[AWo]

BMW could add it to their SUV range against the G Wagen or Mercedes could add it to the G wagen range.

No, I don't think so. BMW had their 8 billion Deutsche Mark desaster with the acquisition of Rover and Land Rover. Mr. Reitzle who strongly recommended to buy Land Rover and leave Rover beside was right with the sum BMW lost. He wanted to have the Range Rover in the BMW group. The Range Rover 3rd generaton (L322) was developed mainly by BMW and the first steps were gone for the Discvery 3. But as BMW wanted to release the X5, which entered the market in 1999, they considered the Discovery as an internal rival and stopped the Discovery 3. Mr. Reitze who went to Ford just beforce Land Rover was selled by BMW to Ford continued both projects project at Ford. The same happened to the Iveco Massif. When FIAT got shares on Jeep (befor the full acquisition) they saw that they have two 4x4 in the portfolio. As the Massif was not strong in sales (but maybe could have become), they stopped that car, to have no internal rival.

So, I don't think that they want to have another rival for the X-Series cars again.

I could imagine another scenario. When IA won't generate profit Ratcliffe needs to leave the boat without a loss of face (extremly important). So he calls it a personal success, the car got real, but it was the fault of others and these people ruined it. I see signs of that behaviour already, making others responsible. Then they close it down or sell it for a very low price).

AWo

 

[AWo]

They will never sell a lot of these unless they start designing it with soccer moms in mind.

Agree. MB had a party when they sold 25,000 units of the G in 2016. Highest sales number at that time. Now they are up to over 40,000 with the new G, taking market shares in the higher price segments with a full luxury vehicle, still capable. Toyota, which also still produces capable 4x4 is cheaper at the same or higher standard then the Grenadier and with a very high reputation and a huge fan base all over the world. The Wrangler, hmmm, difficult. The strategy to electrify it and selling it at 80k Euros+....it could be the end of that car in my opinion. There are other brands, like Citroen, in the Stellantis universe, which loose high amounts of market shares even in their home market, due to same-part-politics and boring cars looking all the same (if I remeber what a fine company with extraordinary and innovative technology and design Citroen was once....very sad). Not sure if Stellantis has luck with its strategy.

In Europe it becomes more and more difficult to produce and sell 4x4 (Companies like VW will stop produce 4x4s to fit the emission regulation because they do not manage to be legal with the weight 4x4 causes). In markets where 4x4s are still demanded Ineos is not alone, especially in Australia and Asia Toyota has high market shares. In the US you have strong domestic car manufacturers.

As evomind said, I also think that they have to sell cars which have a larger customer base.

AWo

 

[AWo]

Ineos haven’t grown to success by wasting money, they’ll want a payback, break even at least.

As I said, they do not generate internal growth, they sell and buy companies. Some business units generate profit, some not. The size of the company comes from acquisitions.

AWo

 

[DCPU]

if we assume they could never sell Hambach plant for what it cost, have to write the cost off against p&l, they continue to incur chunky development costs and have to market the vehicles.

Hambach cost €3.9m, and is a bit of a cash cow ~ €28.4m in the first year.
Post in thread 'HAMBACH PLANT IS ‘GRENADIER READY’ AS INEOS AUTOMOTIVE COMPLETES TRANSITION TO FULLY OPERATIONAL OEM' https://www.theineosforum.com/threa...ully-operational-oem.12271613/post-1333128278

 

[EDWARDO]

Funny i was talking to my father last night about this, and i think it will work, if tesla can be huge i dont see ineos as a car maker wont and lets face it i always laugh when i see people queing for the electric chargers or sitting in them while they charge. Is it niche? Yes, is it cool Yes, I had a woman shaking her head at me in some pretend vw 4x4, just for that its worth it!!

 

[DCPU]

As I said, they do not generate internal growth, they sell and buy companies. Some business units generate profit, some not. The size of the company comes from acquisitions.

They do generate internal growth, but they measure it as profit. The fundamental metric in business?

 

[AnD3rew]

Hmmm, I don't agree. There are no shareholders on stock exchange, but Ineos' growth is mainly by buying and selling companys and business units. That means banks are involved. Many banks. They of course look at how the business runs and if necessary request actions. It is unclear if the chemical business funds the Grenadier and all the other acquisitions of sports clubs, race boats, Formula One etc. which doesn't earn money for the Ineos Holding. But if, all banks giving credits to the chemical business have a potential interest in knowing what is going on. I don't think that Ratcliffe spends his personal money in the Grenadier.

And the dependencies continue. Suppliers for the Grenadier have to commit for a year. So if you produce the mirrors and Ineos comes to you and asks you to sign that you will deliver 70,000 mirrors next year, these companies also have to talk to their bank to pre-finance the production (knowing the risk that you can't sell certain parts to others if Ineos fails). That all creates dependencies. And if suppliers refuse you you loose time (search a new supplier) and maybe you also loose quality.

AWo

Looking at revenue and assets of INEOS I don’t think the money expended on IA is going to worry Jim or his banks any time soon. It would have to be continually losing a lot of money for a long time before it worried them unduly. They can service the debts with their eyes closed.

 

[Eric]

Funny i was talking to my father last night about this, and i think it will work, if tesla can be huge i dont see ineos as a car maker wont and lets face it i always laugh when i see people queing for the electric chargers or sitting in them while they charge. Is it niche? Yes, is it cool Yes, I had a woman shaking her head at me in some pretend vw 4x4, just for that its worth it!!

Set me wondering, if the sale of Man Utd to Ineos goes thru - will the market open up to soccer mums and football WAGS (for @Jean Mercier only, football term, WAGS is "wives and girlfriends)

 

[globalgregors]

I’ve wondered if they were just exporting their rubbish to us poor dumb idiots in Aus

Yeah, I don’t think so given they acquired the sovereign manufacturers and manufactured rubbish right here in Oz…

 

[AWo]

if tesla can be huge i dont see ineos as a car maker wont

Tesla was hyped as an entrepreneur and pioneer in a future market which is total in line with the spirit of the time. That is the wave Tesla rides on. Ineos tries to keep a dinosaur type of car alive. That's where I see the difference.

AWo

 

[globalgregors]

That is the wave Tesla rides on

Not to mention the rather mindblowing incentives available to Tesla customers in the US.

Electric Vehicle & Solar Incentives | Tesla Support

Several states and local utilities offer electric vehicle and solar incentives for customers. Find state and local-specific incentives available in your area.

www.tesla.com

 

[AWo]

They do generate internal growth, but they measure it as profit. The fundamental metric in business?

What I meant is, that they do not grow small companies up to large companies by inventing things, having clever strategies, etc. Of course they generate growth, but that relies mainly on existing structures and processes which where invented by the previous owners. In other words they take over more or less successful companies but the very rarely started new businesses, had success and earnd lots of money. Even with their joint-ventures they were not always successful. The growth they generate is mainly to cost cuts, getting hands on ressources to cut the costs of the supply.

AWo

 

[grenadierboy]

I just checked my crystal ball - in 5 years IA is selling 150,000 units per year:

Third model Grenadier (station wagon/pick-up/extended) 60,000 units
Grenadier 90 EV (hardtop/softop) 30,000 units
Lifestyle Grenadier Hybrid (station wagon/pick-up) 50,000 units
Grenadier Hydro 10,000

 

[To]

As customers I would assume that most of you are interested in having a robust background for the car. Service, parts, repairs, etc. For those of you who not just want to drive a Grenadier once and only as long as the leasing lasts (maybe 3 or 5 years), but maybe 5, 10 or even longer, a reliable and healthy company is a must. Maybe many of you also want to drive a potential successor...

AWo

Money, money, money. Chemistry, chemistry, chemistry. The man can afford not only the Grenadier, he can afford other models. So far it is certain that he has not made more mistakes with the construction of the Grenadier than other manufacturers with new models, which have been on the market for many decades. I am extremely satisfied with my Grenadier. Who offers so much quality for such a price? I always get the impression from your comments that you are an agent for another manufacturer. Between the lines you always try to damage the Grenadier. All European parts, there will always be, as also installed in other models. Is already legend today, so I am sure that all the necessary parts will still be there in decades. But for me a horizon of 10 years is enough. One thing is certain, no Toyota, no Defender old or new, no Ranger or anything else can even come close to the class of the Grenadier. People have really put some thought into this. These many small accurate solutions speak to a lot of love for the Grenadier. You can feel that when you drive it. And one more thing. A prototype is a prototype. A production vehicle is a production vehicle. If you are going to give tips on possible leaks in the future, take a look under the hood of a production vehicle first. You are not helping anyone with your assumptions, except that you are spreading mistrust about the manufacturer. I don't think that's a good thing.