Where is IA in five years? What do you think?

[AWo]

As customers I would assume that most of you are interested in having a robust background for the car. Service, parts, repairs, etc. For those of you who not just want to drive a Grenadier once and only as long as the leasing lasts (maybe 3 or 5 years), but maybe 5, 10 or even longer, a reliable and healthy company is a must. Maybe many of you also want to drive a potential successor.

So I asked myself what does it take? In some discussions in this forum IA is considered as a small vehicle manufacturer, even if not in terms of law, but the production/sales numbers (but only looked at Europe). So my question is, what do you think, where is Ineos Automotive in five years? Will there be a third model, next to the Grenadier and the E-Grenadier which should enter the market 2026 at the latest (ok, looking at the promised schedules and the actual performance of the Grenadier I don't believe that this will happen...).

I looked at a few numbers regarding car manufacturers and their sales number worldwide. The smallest numbers I could get (for 2019) were Aston Martin with 59,000 units followed by Ferrari with 101,000 units. Tesla is at 368,000 units and JLR 558,000. From all listed here, only Astom Martin is member of the ESCA, the European Small Volume Car Manufacturer Alliance, where Ineos is also a member of. Ineos targets 30,000 to 35,000 units per year for the Grenadier. Other brands of the ESCA are part of large companies or have a close relationship to them, like Alpina or Bugatti. The ESCA limit is set to 10,000 units per year registered in Europe, which makes clear that they can have larger production numbers in global sales, like Aston Martin or Ineos. I think that is important, because it shows that if you look at the scale of the manufacturing, number of plants, employees, service organization, sales organization and if there is access to parts of the group or if you produce all on you own, makes a difference. Interestingly Wiesmann is a member of the ESCA as well, even if it had very small numbers compared to the others and Wiesmann today is far from beeing the original Wiesmann of the three brothers (they were really crazy in what they did and how one of them did marketing). Wiesmann is also a good example, that even if you are based on an existing car and existing engines, there always was a cross-financing. Wiessmann produced childrens clothing and hard-top-conversions very successfull and that paid many of the Wiesmann bills.

What I'm very curious about is, if Ineos can get the turnaround to become a profitable copany with a car which has to face the wind of change regarding environmental issues. Regardless of all enthusiasts here, you need quite higher sales numbers to keep such an organization running over a longer period of time or you need a far higher price per unit. You could think the E-Grenadier is exactly the right thing to do, to mitigate that. But it will cost a huge amount of money to devolp this beforehand. And after that? Will there a third modell and will there be money to develop it? All of the manufacturers of the ESCA either modify existing cars or they have more modells to sell, but all at very exclusive prices or they produce for a niche. Like Goupil (which belongs to Polaris), but their customers are not private persons but communities and public service organizations.

What do you think how Ineos Automotive will look like in five years and which cars will they offer?

AWo

 

[DaveB]

As customers I would assume that most of you are interested in having a robust background for the car. Service, parts, repairs, etc. For those of you who not just want to drive a Grenadier once and only as long as the leasing lasts (maybe 3 or 5 years), but maybe 5, 10 or even longer, a reliable and healthy company is a must. Maybe many of you also want to drive a potential successor.

So I asked myself what does it take? In some discussions in this forum IA is considered as a small vehicle manufacturer, even if not in terms of law, but the production/sales numbers (but only looked at Europe). So my question is, what do you think, where is Ineos Automotive in five years? Will there be a third model, next to the Grenadier and the E-Grenadier which should enter the market 2026 at the latest (ok, looking at the promised schedules and the actual performance of the Grenadier I don't believe that this will happen...).

I looked at a few numbers regarding car manufacturers and their sales number worldwide. The smallest numbers I could get (for 2019) were Aston Martin with 59,000 units followed by Ferrari with 101,000 units. Tesla is at 368,000 units and JLR 558,000. From all listed here, only Astom Martin is member of the ESCA, the European Small Volume Car Manufacturer Alliance, where Ineos is also a member of. Ineos targets 30,000 to 35,000 units per year for the Grenadier. Other brands of the ESCA are part of large companies or have a close relationship to them, like Alpina or Bugatti. The ESCA limit is set to 10,000 units per year registered in Europe, which makes clear that they can have larger production numbers in global sales, like Aston Martin or Ineos. I think that is important, because it shows that if you look at the scale of the manufacturing, number of plants, employees, service organization, sales organization and if there is access to parts of the group or if you produce all on you own, makes a difference. Interestingly Wiesmann is a member of the ESCA as well, even if it had very small numbers compared to the others and Wiesmann today is far from beeing the original Wiesmann of the three brothers (they were really crazy in what they did and how one of them did marketing). Wiesmann is also a good example, that even if you are based on an existing car and existing engines, there always was a cross-financing. Wiessmann produced childrens clothing and hard-top-conversions very successfull and that paid many of the Wiesmann bills.

What I'm very curious about is, if Ineos can get the turnaround to become a profitable copany with a car which has to face the wind of change regarding environmental issues. Regardless of all enthusiasts here, you need quite higher sales numbers to keep such an organization running over a longer period of time or you need a far higher price per unit. You could think the E-Grenadier is exactly the right thing to do, to mitigate that. But it will cost a huge amount of money to devolp this beforehand. And after that? Will there a third modell and will there be money to develop it? All of the manufacturers of the ESCA either modify existing cars or they have more modells to sell, but all at very exclusive prices or they produce for a niche. Like Goupil (which belongs to Polaris), but their customers are not private persons but communities and public service organizations.

What do you think how Ineos Automotive will look like in five years and which cars will they offer?

AWo

I was thinking that in about 5 years time the automotive division will be sold off to one of the other major car makers.
BMW could add it to their SUV range against the G Wagen or Mercedes could add it to the G wagen range.
More likely though it will be a Chinese car company or possibly Tata

 

[AnD3rew]

The advantage for INEOS is that a) it is a Private company so doesn’t have to answer to shareholders and b) it is a passion project for the owner.

One can only assume they have done their sums and know what it needs to survive. It has cost more to get running than they anticipated but it’s now sunk cost so abandoning any time soon is unlikely as sales start to bring revenue. Numbers will take a jump when the pickup version is released. The EV version has a double benefit that allows them to get EV revenue but also allows them to offset against their ICE sales so allows expansion of core sales.

No one can predict the future, but barring a disaster I suspect the automotive division will carry on as long as Sir Jim is in charge. After that who knows, maybe it will he a huge success and keep going, maybe it will be sold off to one of the big groups. Maybe will be quietly dismantled. Good thing is that the frame is solid as a rock and 90% of critical operational parts are from established manufacturers so it should be able to be kept running for quite some time whatever happens.

 

[AnD3rew]

I was thinking that in about 5 years time the automotive division will be sold off to one of the other major car makers.
BMW could add it to their SUV range against the G Wagen or Mercedes could add it to the G wagen range.
More likely though it will be a Chinese car company or possibly Tata

Tata is an interesting option, they are clearly re evaluating thier JLR investment and lots of rumours that it may not ultimately survive or may be sold on again. Grenadier would actually fit quite well with their existing Tata branded portfolio but give it a broader market acceptance beyond the subcontinent.

 

[evomind]

They will never sell a lot of these unless they start designing it with soccer moms in mind.
Look at the Discovery/Defender.
Hopefully it will be a limited production niche model like an Elise, a 4C, a Viper, or an H1.

 

[evomind]

Rethinking the question I think a lot has to do with the NA launch.
If the vehicles are as buggy as the rest of the worlds the reviewers will tear it up.
Price wise it isnt a bargain so the G cant compete there, it isnt the most comfortable, isnt good on gas, has a limited dealer network, (very limited it would seem) and having a laundry list of niggling issues.
It's a niche vehicle. An expensive one.
American buyers are typically picky.
I think a lot depends on the first 6 months after launch.
I wish IG would just take whatever time they need and fix the issues.

 

[DDG]

This is an interesting discussion. This project doesn’t have many parallels in the market recently. A few things that contribute to uniqueness are: passion project with substantial financial backing. They don’t need huge volumes or market share to turn a profit. It’s an enviable position. I’ve said all along that Ineos does not even need the huge N American market! Of course that’s just my opinion.
Magna Steyr is a juggernaut of engineering prowess. I can’t think of a project that they’ve failed on. That’s pretty impressive in and of itself. So Ineos Automotive can afford to position themselves and find/define their niche.
In my opinion, the Australian/NZ, European, African, and Middle East markets are crucial. Releasing the Ute version (dual can pickup) as quickly as possible and diversifying their offerings is paramount. In addition, reputation, reputation, reputation. It would be wise for IA to go full frontal assault on their initial build quality and customer satisfaction right now. I see a real risk in how they SEEM to be approaching that production aspect. I am very confident that they will get it right eventually. The basic philosophy and engineering investment is there. The Hambach plant and how they’re being built shows some teething problems (as any new manufacturer would).
Five years from now IA has the potential to be the last of their kind; building utilitarian vehicles for work and play, of the highest caliber. Successful enough that they might even be able to support a hydrogen fuel cell, or battery electric vehicle project in that five year window

 

[evomind]

This is an interesting discussion. This project doesn’t have many parallels in the market recently. A few things that contribute to uniqueness are: passion project with substantial financial backing. They don’t need huge volumes or market share to turn a profit. It’s an enviable position. I’ve said all along that Ineos does not even need the huge N American market! Of course that’s just my opinion.
Magna Steyr is a juggernaut of engineering prowess. I can’t think of a project that they’ve failed on. That’s pretty impressive in and of itself. So Ineos Automotive can afford to position themselves and find/define their niche.
In my opinion, the Australian/NZ, European, African, and Middle East markets are crucial. Releasing the Ute version (dual can pickup) as quickly as possible and diversifying their offerings is paramount. In addition, reputation, reputation, reputation. It would be wise for IA to go full frontal assault on their initial build quality and customer satisfaction right now. I see a real risk in how they SEEM to be approaching that production aspect. I am very confident that they will get it right eventually. The basic philosophy and engineering investment is there. The Hambach plant and how they’re being built shows some teething problems (as any new manufacturer would).
Five years from now IA has the potential to be the last of their kind; building utilitarian vehicles for work and play, of the highest caliber. Successful enough that they might even be able to support a hydrogen fuel cell, or battery electric vehicle project in that five year window

Well it depends on what they are after.....
Dodge knew they could only sell a few thousand Vipers a year....The other niche vehicles I mentioned same thing.
The question is where is the G AFTER the enthusiasts?
After the enthusiasts have their vehicle you then have to sell to people in the market for an 85k dollar work truck, or off-road truck.
Im just saying you cant sell to the masses with the issues current owners are facing.
Can they/will they fix it?
I dont know. Maybe its a British thing.

 

[evomind]

Lotus had plenty of issues the first year or two.
From paint, to steering racks to HVAC.
They fixed them for the most part and the guys from Hethel even admitted they under estimated the pickiness of the American market.
Most folks aren't going to buy this as the family get around.
Its a narrow market vehicle and always will be I think in its current form.

 

[DDG]

Well it depends on what they are after.....
Dodge knew they could only sell a few thousand Vipers a year....The other niche vehicles I mentioned same thing.
The question is where is the G AFTER the enthusiasts?
After the enthusiasts have their vehicle you then have to sell to people in the market for an 85k dollar work truck, or off-road truck.
Im just saying you cant sell to the masses with the issues current owners are facing.
Can they/will they fix it?
I dont know. Maybe its a British thing.

I hear what you’re saying there.
After the diehards have theirs, it will probably come down to how the grenadier is perceived by the masses. Will it capture the zeitgeist? Will it “go viral”?
There aren’t many people who really need a capable off road vehicle. Even fewer who can afford one in this price range. Add to that a global economic slowdown with increased financing costs. Without too much imagination I can picture a very small market existing.
How can that market be made bigger? I think it will require the vehicle to be seen as more desirable than others. Higher quality. More reliable. Better manufacturer support/warranty. I don’t think the answer is influencers or marketing. If ever there was a vehicle that is banking on authenticity, then this is it. So it will need to be every bit as real and capable as it was designed to be.
After all of that, I agree with you: it will remain a niche vehicle that will be sold in small numbers to people who need it (or really think they do…like me )

 

[AnD3rew]

Rethinking the question I think a lot has to do with the NA launch.
If the vehicles are as buggy as the rest of the worlds the reviewers will tear it up.
Price wise it isnt a bargain so the G cant compete there, it isnt the most comfortable, isnt good on gas, has a limited dealer network, (very limited it would seem) and having a laundry list of niggling issues.
It's a niche vehicle. An expensive one.
American buyers are typically picky.
I think a lot depends on the first 6 months after launch.
I wish IG would just take whatever time they need and fix the issues.

I think despite this they will sell as many as they have forecast to in the US (which isn’t that many)

 

[Loc Nar]

How can that market be made bigger? I think it will require the vehicle to be seen as more desirable than others. Higher quality. More reliable. Better manufacturer support/warranty. I don’t think the answer is influencers or marketing.

Hit the nail on the head. This is absolutely the path to long term growth and success, and it needed to start by rolling out "Built for Purpose" vehicles that could be counted on in the worst of circumstances to deliver you where you needed to go safely. Right now, Ineos is delivering many vehicles that cannot be counted on in the best of circumstances to pick up groceries. The only way to turn that tide is for Ineos to be obsessively proactive with a "spare no expense" mindset to communicate effectively with and support their earliest and strongest allies and potential proselytizers (early adopters) and straighten out and stomp any software bugs, leaking doors, leaking air vents, steering wheels that don't steer, air conditioners that don't work, and beeps and bongs and error messages that would drive anyone batshit crazy. One should not need to turn the key and hold a seance to go somewhere. I do that now, but I drive a 2007 Range Rover. TPMS error message, check. Transmission error message, check. Suspension fault, check. Shouldn't drive over 30? F off. But the Grenadier is brand new and, so far, Ineos' roll out and response to serious issues has been limp. And this comes during a crucial period while North American reservation holders are sitting on the sidelines watching, wondering, and starting to think about alternatives.

 

[DaveB]

Rethinking the question I think a lot has to do with the NA launch.
If the vehicles are as buggy as the rest of the worlds the reviewers will tear it up.
Price wise it isnt a bargain so the G cant compete there, it isnt the most comfortable, isnt good on gas, has a limited dealer network, (very limited it would seem) and having a laundry list of niggling issues.
It's a niche vehicle. An expensive one.
American buyers are typically picky.
I think a lot depends on the first 6 months after launch.
I wish IG would just take whatever time they need and fix the issues.

It is funny you say american buyers are typically picky.
Maybe when it comes to imported vehicles??
Over the last 30-40 years all american made vehicles that have come to Australia have failed.
generally considered to be poor quality, badly built or for real enthusiasts.
America is well known for a strong national pride and loyalty (a good thing) so maybe some rose coloured glasses on when looking at local products and taken off when looking at imports.

 

[Stu_Barnes]

Lotus had plenty of issues the first year or two.
From paint, to steering racks to HVAC.
They fixed them for the most part and the guys from Hethel even admitted they under estimated the pickiness of the American market.
Most folks aren't going to buy this as the family get around.
Its a narrow market vehicle and always will be I think in its current form.

IA have bought a plant thats very good at making vehicles with an established track record. The adage that you got a Friday car or a Monday car hopefully won't apply here, fingers crossed.

IA have a long way to become a storied niche vehicle manufacturer thats for certain, in terms of the above but they're trying their best to do their backstory and as I understand it they are looking at taking on motoring challenges in the future.....

What concerns me long term is first and foremost parts availability. Most of the bits that will need replacing apart from bodywork etc are off the shelf with some fettling obviously for this vehicle. (any chassis can be welded into submission with enough steel) Pretty soon, you'll see pattern pieces arrive hopefully, when the tail lights are on eBay for 150 bucks you know you're good for future supply. However it's the electronic parts that I'm raising an eyebrow at, however we swing it, the interface is bespoke to IA and this is an electronic vehicle. However, to what degree you can still drive it when it's all gone to s**t then I don't know. ASPW did a thing on his channel where his LC had a fit when it lost an abs sensor or the like and he said a New Defender would be in limp mode and essentially bottom out in the bush, would this happen here with the Grenadier? Thats the question.

With regards to servicing, I'm betting that if they get to some sort of critical mass of vehicles then it will become its own cottage industry ticking over to keep the old girls running. Its a BMW mill with a ZF gearbox and pretty agricultural running gear after all.

For me the comparison is similar to DeLorean, and there are specialists (they made about 9,000) out there after they ceased to be in existence as a manufacturer decades ago then I think we're going to be ok. For comparison, Lotus made 10,676 Esprits in the entire run starting in 1976 and they're very well serviced to this day, with new components being developed.

I think the key will be to getting the aftermarket interested enough too invest and support, that will then in turn provide impetus for future owners, new vehicles or second hand to take plunge and get in there especially for the overland, adventure, explorer type. For the soccer mum/dad if you like the Grenadier, spec it up, buy it, baby it and sell it to a future enthusiast when your lease is up.

Stu.

 

[bigleonski]

It is funny you say american buyers are typically picky.
Maybe when it comes to imported vehicles??
Over the last 30-40 years all american made vehicles that have come to Australia have failed.
generally considered to be poor quality, badly built or for real enthusiasts.
America is well known for a strong national pride and loyalty (a good thing) so maybe some rose coloured glasses on when looking at local products and taken off when looking at imports.

I was going to post that but didn’t as I thought I might offend someone, however agree. Nearly every US vehicle imported into Australia has been far inferior to anything out of Japan or Europe. There have been some exceptions though I can’t think of one at the minute.
To the point where I’ve wondered if they were just exporting their rubbish to us poor dumb idiots in Aus and keeping the good stuff there because surely they don’t drive these in the states. Certainly what’s available in the states is far greater in terms of choice than what we have had imported so that might be the case. I’ve never visited the US to check.

I can recall being excited back in the (maybe early 90’s) when Jeep brought the cherokee back to Oz. Then I sat in it for the first time and thought it was just like my mum’s Holden kingswood from the 1970’s. And the motor in it was a straight six that also reminded me of holdens from the 70’s. So disappointed.

Again, no offense meant to our US brethren, but just giving you an Australian context in terms of what vehicles we have received from the US market, and it hasn’t been flattering to you.

 

[evomind]

It is funny you say american buyers are typically picky.
Maybe when it comes to imported vehicles??
Over the last 30-40 years all american made vehicles that have come to Australia have failed.
generally considered to be poor quality, badly built or for real enthusiasts.
America is well known for a strong national pride and loyalty (a good thing) so maybe some rose coloured glasses on when looking at local products and taken off when looking at imports.

Have those cars cost 90k dollars USD, or were they cheap cars even by American standards?
Which cars are you referring to?

 

[DaveB]

Have those cars cost 90k dollars USD, or were they cheap cars even by American standards?
Which cars are you referring to?

Keeping in mind that we are right hand drive so any US vehicles have to be available in RHD, or have to be converted, which increases the cost.
All Jeeps have been dismal failures
Chrysler 300 had a little bit of success with the 300SRT trialed by police but lost out to BMW
Mustang has sold in small numbers to enthusiasts
Ford and General motors stopped manufacturing here and pulled out of the country.
Large pickups have a small niche but are generally too big for our roads, carparks and trails.

It's Not Just Europe, Australians Don't Want American Cars Either

You might remember a few months back Donald Trump complained that Europeans don’t buy enough American cars. A couple of weeks ago, in the midst of trade war talks, an op-ed was published by Top Gear outlining why Europeans don’t buy American cars. Us Aussies don’t want them either. Our tastes...

www.carthrottle.com

 

[evomind]

A lot of American car woes are related to what labor unions will allow/not allow.
Like high end premium hand made cars.
The red tape and negotiations with the unions has made that a non starter in the past.
They have tried.
fwiw.
That said, as it stands, the American cars cant touch the europeans especially in interior materials and build quality.
I feel, my opinion, the European cars tend to overcomplicate their engines and haven't figured out electrical components like the Japanese builders have.

 

[evomind]

Keeping in mind that we are right hand drive so any US vehicles have to be available in RHD, or have to be converted, which increases the cost.
All Jeeps have been dismal failures
Chrysler 300 had a little bit of success with the 300SRT trialed by police but lost out to BMW
Mustang has sold in small numbers to enthusiasts
Ford and General motors stopped manufacturing here and pulled out of the country.
Large pickups have a small niche but are generally too big for our roads, carparks and trails.

It's Not Just Europe, Australians Don't Want American Cars Either

You might remember a few months back Donald Trump complained that Europeans don’t buy enough American cars. A couple of weeks ago, in the midst of trade war talks, an op-ed was published by Top Gear outlining why Europeans don’t buy American cars. Us Aussies don’t want them either. Our tastes...

www.carthrottle.com

With the exception of maybe the Mustang, those cars you referenced aren't exactly known for being the pillar of American ingenuity or for overall quality.
However the old straight 6s out of the jeeps were known for running forever.
I never owned one though.

 

[Tazzieman]

I remain optimistic that IA will be in a healthy stare in 5 years if not 10.
New vehicles being computers on wheels depend upon sensors. Like 1 noisy passenger on a plane , a bad one can upset several others or everything.
Thus personally I would be concerned if some sensor or another was unique to the vehicle and unavailable in the future.
But if they are common to BMWs etc there will be plenty around for years and plenty of wrecked cars to plunder.
There will be enough knowledge here for any motivated person to swap out a sensor and avoid the labour costs.
Other componenrs being mechanical will be subject to expected wear and tear and repair/replacement needs.
At least IA have chosen robust components.
Agree with sentiments above that enthusiasts will keep these vehicles on the road for many years to come.