What happens if Ineos Grenadier shuts down for good

[Tx246]

Let’s be realistic, the Grenadier is amazing!

They have built 20k+ vehicles and at least 5k US Spec vehicles. Just going with this, this is the first new production car I have been excited about since Spyker. I didn’t buy the last US delivered Spyker because of warranty concerns. They built less than 400 cars TOTAL.

At 20k in production, a market WILL exist for support. Mercedes built less Pagoda’s.

Forget all of that, I still remember the first US presentations. Ineos has a need for 20k vehicles for regular operation field vehicles for their oil field services. If you think about it, this in no way sounds crazy.

Ineos can clearly cycle vehicles throughout many years with dumbed down version of the Grenadier. Sir Jim didn’t get to his heights by being dumb. This is the default plan, which means we will lots of additional production vehicles even if the “Customer” disappears. He and Ineos are the biggest customer.

I honestly believe, especially for the US, we are going to see Ineos take the Grenadier to the higher market level.

It is an awesome car. I know people don’t want to hear this, but the reality is it is a much higher quality vehicle than I or anyone else expected. If it was $50k more, I would have bought it.

In January 2023, we had a 23 Tahoe Z71 (my daily), a 23 G63 ( our third and custom factory order), and a 23 “Barbie Bronco”. My wife started driving the Bronco but the G63 has gone to technical crap land. The G63 has been her daily for these last 10 years.

Now we have a Grenadier and Barbie Bronco. The G63 has gone to crap. When a Bronco trumps a G63, that is sad. I sold the G last month because as much as the G is cool, the Grenadier is hands down the winner regardless of price.

 

[Tazzieman]

The only issue is if a dealer decides not to run with it. The software licence will then have to go to any interested bidder, and there may not be anyone in your area interested.
Theoretically I could be looking at a 3.5 hour drive , overnight ferry (>$1000), days in a hotel and return. Multiple days off work; at least 5.
Hopefully after my next visit , software patches will sort the last little niggles and from then on it's just parts and general service which any competent BMW/4x4 mechanic can perform.

 

[AWo]

I tried to get as much numbers together as possible for the two (nearly) full sales years 2023 and 2024 up to October, except Russia. Maybe this picture get's better over time,maybe some can contribute....

I tried to get the registration numbers of the countries or continent where Ineos Automotive claims to have at least one dealer from official authorities, except France, where I found a statement form an Ineos employee. Maybe I missed countries

That is the outcome by checking the official statistics of the countries. The numbers are not 100% accurate, the number must be higher. Example: for the UK 2023, for France 2024 is missing. But I think it gives a rough picture. If we take the claim, that 40,000 units have been sold, these round-a-bout 30,000 units must spread over the 17 countries or regions where I didn't get numbers for. However: Lynn Calder stated that the US is the best running market, so I consider that as the top level of sales for a single country. But who knows, maybe there are some more power selling countries around, other than the US, Germany, UK or Australia. Please consider, that the sales in the USA started in 2024, so you need to extract these nearly 5,000 units for 2023, which leaves 2023 as a weak year, in my perspective, as the numbers listed for these countries cover two years (mainly Europe and yeeeesss, except UK and France).

Feel free to believe or not and/or to analyse this for your self...

AWo

 

[Trialmaster]

FFS - another negative thread, speculating on rumours.

 

[landmannnn]

I tried to get as much numbers together as possible for the two (nearly) full sales years 2023 and 2024 up to October, except Russia. Maybe this picture get's better over time,maybe some can contribute....

I tried to get the registration numbers of the countries or continent where Ineos Automotive claims to have at least one dealer from official authorities, except France, where I found a statement form an Ineos employee. Maybe I missed countries

That is the outcome by checking the official statistics of the countries. The numbers are not 100% accurate, the number must be higher. Example: for the UK 2023, for France 2024 is missing. But I think it gives a rough picture. If we take the claim, that 40,000 units have been sold, these round-a-bout 30,000 units must spread over the 17 countries or regions where I didn't get numbers for. However: Lynn Calder stated that the US is the best running market, so I consider that as the top level of sales for a single country. But who knows, maybe there are some more power selling countries around, other than the US, Germany, UK or Australia. Please consider, that the sales in the USA started in 2024, so you need to extract these nearly 5,000 units for 2023, which leaves 2023 as a weak year, in my perspective, as the numbers listed for these countries cover two years (mainly Europe and yeeeesss, except UK and France).

Feel free to believe or not and/or to analyse this for your self...

View attachment 7878123

AWo

For the UK, you can get a better view by visiting this site whch shows how many have registered. Might help with you future research. Incidentally 1615 vehicles to date.

INEOS GRENADIER (model family) - How Many Left?

Statistics for INEOS GRENADIER (model family) model family.. See how many cars of any make and model are left on Britain's roads.

www.howmanyleft.co.uk

 

[WanderingSniper]

But it’s a bit like asking what happens if there’s no internet or electricity tomorrow because of a global terrorist event, or if a meteor strikes.
You can either hope it doesn’t happen or somehow deal with it if it does, or you can go full doomsday prepper and build an underground bunker to live in for the next 10 years.
Each to his/her own I suppose. Either way, adding a few more words to the internet and scaring young children (or in this case old men) isn’t going to give you a solution.

I personally think you (and everyone) should ask those questions though. I worked in disaster services for years, in fact I live in a place where we know for a fact the big earthquake is coming yet most people don't even have a small med kit. I asked myself what happens if the power cuts out, so I bought batteries, a few extra flashlights and a battery operated fan. It's not doomsday prepping to make sure my family is a little more comfortable if we get a few days without power. As for the internet my family will skin me alive if it goes down for more than three minutes so I don't prepare for that at all. Hope for the best, but prepare for the worst.

 

[Tazzieman]

I personally think you (and everyone) should ask those questions though. I worked in disaster services for years, in fact I live in a place where we know for a fact the big earthquake is coming yet most people don't even have a small med kit. I asked myself what happens if the power cuts out, so I bought batteries, a few extra flashlights and a battery operated fan. It's not doomsday prepping to make sure my family is a little more comfortable if we get a few days without power. As for the internet my family will skin me alive if it goes down for more than three minutes so I don't prepare for that at all. Hope for the best, but prepare for the worst.

We could have an offgrid or prepper thread . I am ready for the next big bushfire so maintain a generator to at least keep starlink going, for my wife's sanity

 

[pmatusov]

I understand but looking back personally I would have hesitated to buy the IG if i realized production was halted.

Seriously?
Let's see.
In the U.S., there are thousands of ROW D110s from eons ago that people happily pay nearly the same amount of money as the cost of a brand new Grenadier.
These are beat-up trucks, some well restored, some hacked to death. There's no warranty whatsoever.
With the Grenadier, you at the very least are getting a very common and well-known engine and very common and well-known transmission. Both new.

 

[DaveB]

My Grenadier is part of my doomsday prepping, now all I need is the underground bunker. Not sure the warranty will cover damage due to 5G radiation and zombie impacts anyway.

My doomsday prepping is two stocked wine fridges, two minute noodles, several bottles of scotch, candles and 5 fresh packs of Phase 10 cards.
My wife also has a fishing rod and lures and a huge ocean out the front.
In case we want some meat, ducks, roos or rabbits I have 1,000 rounds for my .357 magnum revolver.
And my Grenadier of course.

 

[DaveB]

I tried to get as much numbers together as possible for the two (nearly) full sales years 2023 and 2024 up to October, except Russia. Maybe this picture get's better over time,maybe some can contribute....

I tried to get the registration numbers of the countries or continent where Ineos Automotive claims to have at least one dealer from official authorities, except France, where I found a statement form an Ineos employee. Maybe I missed countries

That is the outcome by checking the official statistics of the countries. The numbers are not 100% accurate, the number must be higher. Example: for the UK 2023, for France 2024 is missing. But I think it gives a rough picture. If we take the claim, that 40,000 units have been sold, these round-a-bout 30,000 units must spread over the 17 countries or regions where I didn't get numbers for. However: Lynn Calder stated that the US is the best running market, so I consider that as the top level of sales for a single country. But who knows, maybe there are some more power selling countries around, other than the US, Germany, UK or Australia. Please consider, that the sales in the USA started in 2024, so you need to extract these nearly 5,000 units for 2023, which leaves 2023 as a weak year, in my perspective, as the numbers listed for these countries cover two years (mainly Europe and yeeeesss, except UK and France).

Feel free to believe or not and/or to analyse this for your self...

View attachment 7878123

AWo

By end of January 2024 Australia had 1,100 vehicles sold according to Justin Hocevar in an interview.
That is sold to end customers.
He was expecting the same in 2024, plus the Quartermaster and then Quartermaster cab chassis on top of that.
Quartermaster suits the Australian market more and particularly the cab chassis version.

One dealer alone told me they were delivering 30 a month (so probably 20) and we have 29 dealers in Australia.
Another dealer this week told me they were doing services on 2 Grenadiers a day.

So I GUESS probably 2,500 or so in Australia by years end.

 

[victrialmaster]

You've got to remember that for INEOS, Recaro is their only seat supplier. They're not like Ford or Toyota who can just pull a different seat off the shelf and rehomologate the vehicle quickly with the new seat under a "black edition" until the normal seats come back online. INEOS needs to find a new supplier, retool, resubmit homologation/safety data to the 40-odd countries they sell the vehicle into.

Also, let's just touch on all the other legacy manufacturers who have shut down or are facing massive financial issues recently... So this isn't just an INEOS issue, if anything, I have more faith in a privately owned, niche product brand to weather the storm, unlike many of the traditional OEM's who are publically traded and have bet the house on electric vehicles due to shareholder demands

• Volkswagen faces manufacturing challenges amid financial troubles
• VW’s plant closures illustrate industry’s existential crisis
• GM pauses production of trucks due to parts shortage
• Toyota subsidiary shuts down production after admitting to decades of safety test 'irregularities'
• Toyota to restart Japan production after halt caused by cyberattack on supplier
• JLR Owner Tata Steel to close two blast furnaces in Port Talbot causing major setback to regional automotive production
• Audi may close Brussels plant as Q8 e-tron demand falls

 

[DaveB]

You've got to remember that for INEOS, Recaro is their only seat supplier. They're not like Ford or Toyota who can just pull a different seat off the shelf and rehomologate the vehicle quickly with the new seat under a "black edition" until the normal seats come back online. INEOS needs to find a new supplier, retool, resubmit homologation/safety data to the 40-odd countries they sell the vehicle into.

Also, let's just touch on all the other legacy manufacturers who have shut down or are facing massive financial issues recently... So this isn't just an INEOS issue, if anything, I have more faith in a privately owned, niche product brand to weather the storm, unlike many of the traditional OEM's who are publically traded and have bet the house on electric vehicles due to shareholder demands

• Volkswagen faces manufacturing challenges amid financial troubles
• VW’s plant closures illustrate industry’s existential crisis
• GM pauses production of trucks due to parts shortage
• Toyota subsidiary shuts down production after admitting to decades of safety test 'irregularities'
• Toyota to restart Japan production after halt caused by cyberattack on supplier
• JLR Owner Tata Steel to close two blast furnaces in Port Talbot causing major setback to regional automotive production
• Audi may close Brussels plant as Q8 e-tron demand falls

Yes i just heard that Volkswagen Group is about to lay off 30,000 employees

 

[Max]

Agree. It is for bogatyrs.
View attachment 7877912

No, they saddle up Lada Nivas

 

[Tazzieman]

No, they saddle up Lada Nivas

Which horse has the heavier steering?
Which automatically returns to centre?

 

[Max]

Which horse has the heavier steering?
Which automatically returns to centre?

Draught and Quarter

 

[DaveB]

I have just been advised that Ineos has purchased the equipment from Recaro GMBH to manufacture the exact same seats in house (possibly subcontracted) but not the rights to use the Recaro name.
Obviously it will take some time to relocate the equipment and start production but it is an extremely significant investment.

Doomsday has been avoided.

 

[Tazzieman]

I have just been advised that Ineos has purchased the equipment.... but not the rights to use the Recaro name.

Maybe rename it Recoar?
a la...

 

[Commodore]

I have just been advised that Ineos has purchased the equipment from Recaro GMBH to manufacture the exact same seats in house (possibly subcontracted) but not the rights to use the Recaro name.
Obviously it will take some time to relocate the equipment and start production but it is an extremely significant investment.

Doomsday has been avoided.

That would be great news. Do you happen to have a link to that news?

 

[DaveB]

That would be great news. Do you happen to have a link to that news?

The news was verbal and confidential from within the Ineos Australia network.

 

[parb]

You've got to remember that for INEOS, Recaro is their only seat supplier. They're not like Ford or Toyota who can just pull a different seat off the shelf and rehomologate the vehicle quickly with the new seat under a "black edition" until the normal seats come back online. INEOS needs to find a new supplier, retool, resubmit homologation/safety data to the 40-odd countries they sell the vehicle into.

Agreed, but... for the largest market (the US) they self certify. This process is pretty straightforward.
as long as they had a suitable part then i think they could have opened manufacturing of vehicles for the US market relatively quickly.
As long as regulatory for the other 39 markets are largely paper work and not redesign you could restart manufacturing quickly.
Or you can accept that the US market is different and have different parts in the vehicles in that market, its what many others do.

If they didn't have a supplier lined up then of course its going to take whatever time that takes. i suspect its more of a matter of finding a supplier that suits the design language and product quality.

I think they have sold enough cars to be heading towards critical mass. Its not like fisker who only delivered 4,000 cars before they ran into bankruptcy.
At 10x the vehicle volume they should be on the other side of that. I also dont' see mass discounting taking place.
In this i think it takes a while, the first enthusiast drive the first initial big sales volume, then you get a valley until the pace picks up again.
Tesla followed this pattern as have others. Ineos just needs to focus on process efficiencies and refining the product and it will be all right.

I'm surprised they haven't built more for the aftermarket. This is a great place to make some additional upside. like bullbars and other extras. A class margin enhancer.