Trump announces 25% tariff on all imported vehicles!

[DaveB]

I think it is appropriate here to recall the Hunting Lodge Rule: Don't complain unless you have a better solution. The problem we face is the loss of manufacturing jobs especially to China. This is an economic issue, a foundational cultural issue, a moral issue and a security issue. We all remember that, once Covid-19 was exported to the rest of the world, not only were the Chinese at best not transparent about its origins, but in the US we found it difficult to get personal protective equipment to protect ourselves.

This is a small example that helps illustrate that our dependency cannot continue if we are to retain our sovereignty, in its practical sense. There will be many errors along the way. But the question remains: what is superior practical alternative to this policy given the current situation is unacceptable? If there aren't better alternatives, maybe this is the least worst one.

I think most of us agree with what you are saying.
Unfortunately if you have structural problems with the walls or roof of your building then best you consult a builder, not an arsonist.

 

[Znarfgh]

The PRC didn't offshore manufacturing, our businesses did. The same businesses that continually petitioned our government in private to do NOTHING about intellectual theft so they wouldn't loose the chinese market. It was our Greeeeeeed, not the chinese that started this. The comical part is, the C level wealthy have been selling out the other 99% for 50 years, and dumber gullible part of that 99% put a grifter C level thief in charge, because he said he knew what was going on and would help them... It really was the ultimate lucy and the football. If I lived somewhere else, I'd hyperventilate from laughing at us every morning after reading the news.

Yep, I worked for three multi-nationals (including one American company) that off shored their manufacturing in the name of lower costs and increased profits. Globalisation was the buzz word in the 80's and it was the west that made China what it is today. China was only the start............

 

[DaveB]

Yep, I worked for three multi-nationals (including one American company) that off shored their manufacturing in the name of lower costs and increased profits. Globalisation was the buzz word in the 80's and it was the west that made China what it is today. China was only the start............

I recently worked for a Swiss company called Endress + Hauser.
Although they have manufacturing operations in many countries all of the electronics and software is manufactured in Switzerland.
they keep control of the most important components of the manufacturing and the intellectual property while still being able to service local markets effectively.

 

[Shopkeep]

I think it is appropriate here to recall the Hunting Lodge Rule: Don't complain unless you have a better solution. The problem we face is the loss of manufacturing jobs especially to China. This is an economic issue, a foundational cultural issue, a moral issue and a security issue. We all remember that, once Covid-19 was exported to the rest of the world, not only were the Chinese at best not transparent about its origins, but in the US we found it difficult to get personal protective equipment to protect ourselves.

This is a small example that helps illustrate that our dependency cannot continue if we are to retain our sovereignty, in its practical sense. There will be many errors along the way. But the question remains: what is superior practical alternative to this policy given the current situation is unacceptable? If there aren't better alternatives, maybe this is the least worst one.

But do you have to be able to manufacture every single thing that is consumed in your country to retain your sovereignty? I was not aware that the sovereignty of the USA was under question? (well, maybe it is now more in question after Liberation Day). Your standard of living is relatively high and your unemployment rate is low, do you really want to reduce the standard of living of the average person so you can have a warm fuzzy feeling inside and say every screw, nut and bolt of your Chevy or KitchenAid or iPhone was made there? The good burghers of Spartanburg now have high paying jobs assembling high value vehicles made from parts from all around the world (many of them in the good old USA), they don't want their kids working in the low wage textile mills of the good old days being derided as lint-heads. To revive that kind of low value low wage manufacturing you will either need to convince millions of your citizens that their time & labour is not worth much (not sure that will go down well with the already depressed angry young men) or you will need to retain and bring in millions more immigrants for whom that kind of work is aspirational and a step up in life.

 

[DaveB]

But do you have to be able to manufacture every single thing that is consumed in your country to retain your sovereignty? I was not aware that the sovereignty of the USA was under question? (well, maybe it is now more in question after Liberation Day). Your standard of living is relatively high and your unemployment rate is low, do you really want to reduce the standard of living of the average person so you can have a warm fuzzy feeling inside and say every screw, nut and bolt of your Chevy or KitchenAid or iPhone was made there? The good burghers of Spartanburg now have high paying jobs assembling high value vehicles made from parts from all around the world (many of them in the good old USA), they don't want their kids working in the low wage textile mills of the good old days being derided as lint-heads. To revive that kind of low value low wage manufacturing you will either need to convince millions of your citizens that their time & labour is not worth much (not sure that will go down well with the already depressed angry young men) or you will need to retain and bring in millions more immigrants for whom that kind of work is aspirational and a step up in life.

Keep in mind the published unemployment rate in the US is fairly dodgy and doesn't include the chronically unemployed.

As there is very little or no unemployment benefits in the US then there is no easy way to know who is unemployed and actively seeking employment.
In Australia and most other countries you get ongoing benefits so have to register to receive the benefits so the numbers are accurate and known.

 

[Gaffer]

But do you have to be able to manufacture every single thing that is consumed in your country to retain your sovereignty? I was not aware that the sovereignty of the USA was under question? (well, maybe it is now more in question after Liberation Day). Your standard of living is relatively high and your unemployment rate is low, do you really want to reduce the standard of living of the average person so you can have a warm fuzzy feeling inside and say every screw, nut and bolt of your Chevy or KitchenAid or iPhone was made there? The good burghers of Spartanburg now have high paying jobs assembling high value vehicles made from parts from all around the world (many of them in the good old USA), they don't want their kids working in the low wage textile mills of the good old days being derided as lint-heads. To revive that kind of low value low wage manufacturing you will either need to convince millions of your citizens that their time & labour is not worth much (not sure that will go down well with the already depressed angry young men) or you will need to retain and bring in millions more immigrants for whom that kind of work is aspirational and a step up in life.

Sovereignty depends on the ability to defend it. Defense usually requires a robust economic base to make and finance weapons and an army. So China is today a more serious rival than is Russia.

You are right that we do not need to make everything. But we need to make more than we do for the health of our economy, since our comparative advantage in intellectual property seems vulnerable to theft. For the rest, we need to make sure import flows are secure. The PPE shortages during Covid should have been a wake up call. Spartanburg is indeed a promising foundation for this.

Regarding textiles, Scott Bessent makes the point that, when Americans go back to textile manufacturing, they will do so as engineers and maintainers of robots, much higher order of skill than the old loom operators. This will require fewer workers, and they will be better paid.

I cannot know whether tariffs will be the catalyst of greater US wealth, higher middle class incomes and so forth. But it is plausible, has precedent in pre-Civil War US economic development and is, as far as I know, the best idea on offer.

 

[Shopkeep]

Sovereignty depends on the ability to defend it. Defense usually requires a robust economic base to make and finance weapons and an army. So China is today a more serious rival than is Russia.

You are right that we do not need to make everything. But we need to make more than we do for the health of our economy, since our comparative advantage in intellectual property seems vulnerable to theft. For the rest, we need to make sure import flows are secure. The PPE shortages during Covid should have been a wake up call. Spartanburg is indeed a promising foundation for this.

Regarding textiles, Scott Bessent makes the point that, when Americans go back to textile manufacturing, they will do so as engineers and maintainers of robots, much higher order of skill than the old loom operators. This will require fewer workers, and they will be better paid.

I cannot know whether tariffs will be the catalyst of greater US wealth, higher middle class incomes and so forth. But it is plausible, has precedent in pre-Civil War US economic development and is, as far as I know, the best idea on offer.

Can you really use pre-Civil War economic development as an example of what is possible and desirable now? Much of that development was due to the availability of a different type of low wage work force?

 

[Tazzieman]

Can you really use pre-Civil War economic development as an example of what is possible and desirable now? Much of that development was due to the availability of a different type of low wage work force?

The oligarchs are keen on a new serfdom, and a supercontinent incorporating Greenland, Canada , USA and the Panama canal to sluice their exports.
Misty eyed old men and nutters , dreaming.

 

[MattA]

Precedent in civil war economics
Hilarious
Keep it coming gentlemen

 

[DaveB]

Can you really use pre-Civil War economic development as an example of what is possible and desirable now? Much of that development was due to the availability of a different type of low wage work force?

Yep.
Seems it has been a long and intentional problem.
View: https://youtu.be/Eb0zfCuiqek?si=xIEpWhgcWLZ_oiUo

 

[Shopkeep]

Precedent in civil war economics
Hilarious
Keep it coming gentlemen

I wonder if our distant relatives sat in their drawing rooms under the gas light, drooling over prints of the latest carriages, furiously writing letters to other random carriage fanciers debating the latest developments in leaf spring suspension and how the current times could be improved by lessons learned prior to the Wars of the Three Kingdoms?

 

[Tazzieman]

I wonder if our distant relatives sat in their drawing rooms under the gas light, drooling over drawings of the latest carriages, furiously writing letters to other random carriage fanciers debating the latest developments in leaf spring suspension and how the current times could be improved by lessons learned prior to the Wars of the Three Kingdoms?
View attachment 7893417

Oh noes! Where is the TPMS?

 

[Shopkeep]

Oh noes! Where is the TPMS?

No cracked windscreens in that baby!

 

[Rab]

Those rock sliders are a bit low.

 

[bigleonski]

Not sure where I’d put the fridge?

 

[landmannnn]

Regarding textiles, Scott Bessent makes the point that, when Americans go back to textile manufacturing, they will do so as engineers and maintainers of robots, much higher order of skill than the old loom operators. This will require fewer workers, and they will be better paid.

On textile and hence garment manufacturing one would imagine a large army of Chinese peasants picking cotton and a similar army of workers standing in front of 19th century looms.

The world has moved on. This industry in China is highly automated and robotised.

I think there is a general misunderstanding that we could bring back manufacturing to the western world because we are more clever than the Chinese.

 

[Tazzieman]

I think there is a general misunderstanding that we could bring back manufacturing to the western world because we are more clever than the Chinese.

A general misunderstanding amongst the poorly educated , anxious /paranoid , bigoted and racist population. China values and respects high levels of education , and the nationalistic indoctrination that occurs is part and parcel of their success in gathering and utilising people Vance calls "peasants".
Enforcing party ideals is easier in a communist country - or dictatorship (oligarchal or military).
We all know plenty of folk are going to get bitten on the arse over the gut actions of Big Rocket man ( formerly known as the Orange One)

 

[bigleonski]

I live in an apartment block where 60% of the occupants at Chinese Uni students or families living in a $1m plus apartment dad paid for so they could attend a Top 50 world rated university.

They aren’t here on tourist visas.

The 200 bed Unilodge student accommodation block next door would be 90% Chinese students. And they want to be here learning.

I don’t think they will be working in textiles.

 

[Gaffer]

Can you really use pre-Civil War economic development as an example of what is possible and desirable now? Much of that development was due to the availability of a different type of low wage work force?

Your comment about a low wage work force is, I assume, about slavery. Pre-Civil War economic development was far faster in the north, without slavery, than in the south. In addition to being a moral abomination, slavery created crippling economic distortions that .

I was speaking about the tariffs that were the principle source of federal revenues at that time. They protected chiefly northern US manufacturing development.

 

[Gaffer]

A general misunderstanding amongst the poorly educated , anxious /paranoid , bigoted and racist population. China values and respects high levels of education , and the nationalistic indoctrination that occurs is part and parcel of their success in gathering and utilising people Vance calls "peasants".
Enforcing party ideals is easier in a communist country - or dictatorship (oligarchal or military).
We all know plenty of folk are going to get bitten on the arse over the gut actions of Big Rocket man ( formerly known as the Orange One)

No one on this forum is "bigoted and racist."

I understand a peasant to be tied to the land that they do not own. They lack the autonomy and freedom that are the ideal of post Enlightenment Western Civilization in part because they lack property that allows them to make decisions that differ from official government policy. In communist and other dictatorship / oligarchical systems, property ownership is either absent or ownership's prerogatives are highly constrained. That is how I understood JD Vance's "peasant" comment: no matter how well educated a citizen of China is, he is still a "peasant" in his lack of autonomy. Being a peasant goes with the territory if you live in a communist country.