Friday Musings: Will the Grenadier burst the Defender bubble?

[G-Man]

Given that the LR Defender is actually a bit of a cr@p box compared to the Grenadier, I wonder how quickly the after market tuners and 'Chelsea Tractor' conversion specialists will switch allegiance once they start rolling off the production line? I bet they've already got their bulk orders in and are salivating at the prospect.

I suppose the people lining up to buy a souped up Landy with hand-stitched quilted leather interior and 22" alloys for £110k+ may be collectors, but I'd imagine an unadulterated SW would be a better long-term investment. So if they're actually buying them to drive and even off-road then I'd imagine a Grenadier would make a far better starting point for whatever ostentatious tat and/or performance upgrades they want to throw on.

As such it'll be interesting to see if the launch of the Grenadier bursts the current Defender sales market bubble, no doubt driven by the demand for clean donor vehicles. When I sold my last Defender back in 2016 I thought I'd done well getting paid the same price for it second hand as what I'd paid for it new. At that point I thought it was just a temporary nostalgia-driven blip in the market, but I'm kicking myself for selling it now. The prices people are currently asking for a stock Defender with low miles are just insane!

Here's a prime example: A 2014MY SW with 10K on the clock offered for the same price as a new Grenadier Trialmaster @£59.k and over double its original retail price :

 

Or a 2015MY Utility with 900 miles on the clock at over three times its original sticker price @£85k:

 

Or if you've got a cool £1/4 mill burning a hole in your pocket here's a 2016MY V8 with 2K on the clock:

 

[emax]

Yes, you're right. But a thing is worth what people pay for it.

And the samples which you show us are simply in mint condition. Wonderful.

Defenders are just beauties.

Still and forever.

 

[emax]

Forgot something:

"... for the same price as a new Grenadier Trialmaster @£59.k"

What do you think will the money be for? ;-)

And to answer your topic, as far as I'm concerned, I'm finally off the Defenders market. And I am for sure not the only one.

The closer the prices for used Defenders come to the Grenadier, the more people will wake up and say "Hey, a car better than a Defender, no more repairs, no more fighting rust, and more reliable? Am I an Idiot?"

I love Defenders and Series as well, they are a kind of their own. And even though a Grenadier outperforms any Defender in almost any respect be it offroad, comfort, safety, future-proofness or performance, it can not replace them. They are a legend, and their look and their history is inimitable.

But I see a personal limit at 25K € for a maintained Defender, may be 30K € for a well maintained one. Anything beyond is (for me) a reason to think at least twice. And if one can afford 50K € for a car which is intended for daily use, he/she will in the medium term not want to invest them into a mobile construction site.

 

[ADVAW8S]

I think the train is pulling into the station.  I know here states a company called Helderburg Defender is advertising more.  The ad is simple, are you looking for a Defender than now is time to act.  The car is a daily driver and you will be happy with it.  I have a friend who was about to put a large sums of money on a old defender build when I showed him Grenadier.  He stopped and said put a deposit down instead on Grenadier.  He beats his trucks so this will not be a look at me vehicle.  

 

[G-Man]

[QUOTE username=emax userid=8900646 postid=1332719033]Forgot something:

And to answer your topic, as far as I'm concerned, I'm finally off the Defenders market. And I am for sure not the only one.

[/QUOTE]

I've owned several Defenders over the years and I loved them all dearly but it was the dealerships that eventually led to the end of my loyalty. I'm hoping that Ineos' attitude towards customer service and warranty repairs will be an improvement, as they're clearly not going to re-invent themselves as a 'Luxury SUV' brand anytime soon.

 

[DaveH1]

[QUOTE username=G-Man userid=8989993 postid=1332736373]

I've owned several Defenders over the years and I loved them all dearly but it was the dealerships that eventually led to the end of my loyalty. I'm hoping that Ineos' attitude towards customer service and warranty repairs will be an improvement, as they're clearly not going to re-invent themselves as a 'Luxury SUV' brand anytime soon.[/QUOTE]

I agree about the service, we have a 2020 Evoke through our local dealer in Basingstoke, UK,  and there service is poor - the coffee, carpets and receptionist are great!
The new Landrover defender is really a case of form over function and whoever designed it didn't understand the market that made the old defender so popular. at £80k plus it can't be seen as a utility vehicle. I have my fingers crossed that the Ineos build ethos is carried through into service. My slight concern is that the local Ineos dealer to me, which is in Portsmouth, is owned by the guys who run the Landrover branch in Basingstoke ? 

 

[rovie]

I share this thought with you. When I made the reservation, a dealer was suggested that was closest to where I live. In this case, it was a VW dealer who, in my opinion, is not at all familiar with off-road vehicles. There are also existing Land Rover dealers in the selection. What interest do they have in selling the Grenadier. I chose a dealer that does not sell any vehicles at all so far, but only does off-road conversions specifically for the G model. The first talks were promising.

 

[Shaky]

I think the ethos of selecting a dealer who may not be local is quite popular having spoken to other forum members and I agree. I haven’t spoken to my local dealership yet but apparently at least one of the guys there really knows his stuff and they are quite helpful. So a real bonus that they are only 15 mins up the road from me. I remember an Ineos interview where they said they wouldn’t be opening gin palaces like other manufacturers (wonder who they meant ?). I assume that Ineos will have regional managers who will be overseeing the dealerships quite closely to start with. I don’t think that Ineos will get this far only to let it be ruined bythe late smarmy car salesmen who used to work at “insert name here”, and decides who can and can’t afford a car by the “look of them” in the first 5 seconds as they walk through the door. 

 

[rovie]

Shaky, you are absolutely right. My Land Rover garage is not a Land Rover Dealer, but they work on Landies for more than 40 years. I do not need a showroom and a cafe latte. I appreciate the technical know-how.

 

[AnD3rew]

Given that the LR Defender is actually a bit of a cr@p box compared to the Grenadier, I wonder how quickly the after market tuners and 'Chelsea Tractor' conversion specialists will switch allegiance once they start rolling off the production line? I bet they've already got their bulk orders in and are salivating at the prospect.

I suppose the people lining up to buy a souped up Landy with hand-stitched quilted leather interior and 22" alloys for £110k+ may be collectors, but I'd imagine an unadulterated SW would be a better long-term investment. So if they're actually buying them to drive and even off-road then I'd imagine a Grenadier would make a far better starting point for whatever ostentatious tat and/or performance upgrades they want to throw on.

As such it'll be interesting to see if the launch of the Grenadier bursts the current Defender sales market bubble, no doubt driven by the demand for clean donor vehicles. When I sold my last Defender back in 2016 I thought I'd done well getting paid the same price for it second hand as what I'd paid for it new. At that point I thought it was just a temporary nostalgia-driven blip in the market, but I'm kicking myself for selling it now. The prices people are currently asking for a stock Defender with low miles are just insane!

Here's a prime example: A 2014MY SW with 10K on the clock offered for the same price as a new Grenadier Trialmaster @£59.k and over double its original retail price :



Or a 2015MY Utility with 900 miles on the clock at over three times its original sticker price @£85k:



Or if you've got a cool £1/4 mill burning a hole in your pocket here's a 2016MY V8 with 2K on the clock:

I don’t think it will trouble Land Rover much, if at all, there will be a small amount of overlap but the majority of Defender owners these days are not actually in the market for a rugged ling lasting off roader, they may well like that it is theoretically very capable in case of a zombie apocalypse but they like the aesthetic and the comforts. (Thats not really a criticism I like them a lot too, and they do drive beautifully) The Grenadier market is mixed but only crosses that market a small amount. People who just like new and interesting, people wanting basic durable capable, people who want an old Defender and this is the closest they can find etc. Small commercial users, farmers, tradespeople etc. It might cut the Defender orders by 2-5% but they are currently getting 10-30% more orders than they can reasonably build in any case so I don’t think they will be troubled.

 

[emax]

but the majority of Defender owners these days are not actually in the market for a rugged ling lasting off roader,

I think the question is, how many Grenadier buyers would otherwise order a Defender.

Most of which are willing to pay 70-80 thousand Euros, something which is clearly in the range of a new (so called) Defender.

 

[DCPU]

It might cut the Defender orders by 2-5% but they are currently getting 10-30% more orders than they can reasonably build in any case so I don’t think they will be troubled.

It's true that they are getting more orders than they can build; but it's because they are building less than the volume they initially forecast; so a supply side problem of an order backlog.

 

[AnD3rew]

I think the question is, how many Grenadier buyers would otherwise order a Defender.

Most of which are willing to pay 70-80 thousand Euros, something which is clearly in the range of a new (so called) Defender.

There

It's true that they are getting more orders than they can build; but it's because they are building less than the volume they initially forecast; so a supply side problem of an order backlog.

Happy to be wrong but I had understood they had both more orders than they forecast and and building less because of supply issues

 

[klarie]

Hm, I did really look at the "New" defender. its about comparable prices etc.
It looks quite modern "futuristic" and has some shape elements of the old one here and there.
It may have some capabilities here and there if this is an unpaved road and also light off-road.
However too many gadgets, - the engine is prone of issues like drive chain replacement on 90.000 mls , (which is a 10 hrs job at least and need special tools, drive chain is on gearbox side - this means everything out and and stripped.)
Air suspension.
Repairjobs need a garage.
The intention is 98% on road, - look impressive to neighbourhood, bringing children safely to school and perhaps tow some trailer for horses or bikes.
Serious work in construction, forestry, hunting, agricultural, and those who do the hobby of 4x4 and travel beyond usual areas? -
New Defender is far too luxury for these requirements. It's not the intended market for Land Rover / Tata.
To me - Defender is not comparable IG - Defender market is different. - so there will be very little competition. I know just one hunter who purchased a new Defender. This guy is wealthy enough to have a 2nd real offroader for the dirty business - an older Lada Niva. - The Defender is just a showcar, when going to gunsmith, meetings, etc. Not used as an utility.
The IG will bite most certainly in the market occupied by Jeep Wrangler and where Ford tries to be in with Bronco and whats currently covered by some of the smaller pickup like Mitsubishi L200, Toyota, Isuzu, Nissan etc.. most of these have a cabcover on top of the boot - dog compartments - anything like this. The prices are comparable and I know a few pickup owners they purchased it only because there is no suitable 4x4 on the market.

Also - there is demand but not yet fulfilled.
So I conclude there is very little competition between IG and New Defender. New Defender competes with MB GLE / GLS, BMW X Series and alike vehicles. IG competes with Jeep, Pickup and some commercially used 4x4 trucks - also serving a niche currently not covered by any of these.

 

[emax]

There

Happy to be wrong but I had understood they had both more orders than they forecast and and building less because of supply issues

The order situation will probably change when the Grenadier hits the road and more and more youtube videos from owners appear..

 

[globalgregors]

Hm, I did really look at the "New" defender. its about comparable prices etc.
It looks quite modern "futuristic" and has some shape elements of the old one here and there.
It may have some capabilities here and there if this is an unpaved road and also light off-road.
However too many gadgets, - the engine is prone of issues like drive chain replacement on 90.000 mls , (which is a 10 hrs job at least and need special tools, drive chain is on gearbox side - this means everything out and and stripped.)
Air suspension.
Repairjobs need a garage.
The intention is 98% on road, - look impressive to neighbourhood, bringing children safely to school and perhaps tow some trailer for horses or bikes.
Serious work in construction, forestry, hunting, agricultural, and those who do the hobby of 4x4 and travel beyond usual areas? -
New Defender is far too luxury for these requirements. It's not the intended market for Land Rover / Tata.
To me - Defender is not comparable IG - Defender market is different. - so there will be very little competition. I know just one hunter who purchased a new Defender. This guy is wealthy enough to have a 2nd real offroader for the dirty business - an older Lada Niva. - The Defender is just a showcar, when going to gunsmith, meetings, etc. Not used as an utility.
The IG will bite most certainly in the market occupied by Jeep Wrangler and where Ford tries to be in with Bronco and whats currently covered by some of the smaller pickup like Mitsubishi L200, Toyota, Isuzu, Nissan etc.. most of these have a cabcover on top of the boot - dog compartments - anything like this. The prices are comparable and I know a few pickup owners they purchased it only because there is no suitable 4x4 on the market.

Also - there is demand but not yet fulfilled.
So I conclude there is very little competition between IG and New Defender. New Defender competes with MB GLE / GLS, BMW X Series and alike vehicles. IG competes with Jeep, Pickup and some commercially used 4x4 trucks - also serving a niche currently not covered by any of these.

Having driven a ‘Soccer Mum SUV’ around the world I’m maybe a bit testy about this sort of positioning. I reckon the new Defender is a superb bit of engineering, that is way too overbuilt to be dismissed as a poser. That said I just don’t look at it and see a keeper like I do with the Grenadier (or W461), possibly for the reasons you list.

Interesting to contemplate the models you mention: MB G-series (Magna Steyr current); BMW X-5 (Gen 3 Range Rover lineage); BMW X-3 (Magna Steyr lineage); Jeep Grand Cherokee (Magna Steyr lineage). Everyone’s been marrying their cousins for years, and that’s before one considers the engine family trees.

 

[klarie]

Having driven a ‘Soccer Mum SUV’ around the world I’m maybe a bit testy about this sort of positioning. I reckon the new Defender is a superb bit of engineering, that is way too overbuilt to be dismissed as a poser. That said I just don’t look at it and see a keeper like I do with the Grenadier (or W461), possibly for the reasons you list.

Interesting to contemplate the models you mention: MB G-series (Magna Steyr current); BMW X-5 (Gen 3 Range Rover lineage); BMW X-3 (Magna Steyr lineage); Jeep Grand Cherokee (Magna Steyr lineage). Everyone’s been marrying their cousins for years, and that’s before one considers the engine family trees.

Hm, even if you drove the Soccer Mum SUV around the world. .. I consider it from "general level" - this means from management view - "Where is the market for the car I want to sell"
Not from a customers intention what do I demand from a vehicle. That are 2 entirely different perspective.
Indeed when I told my friends I did order an IG - the answers were more like this - "Are you crazy - put a new car in to the dirt and it may get scratches and stains .. get an used car for this purpose and also - this is a brand new thingie - never proven in daily business. "
However its Magna who developed this, - Ineos is open what they do - and they have no options to fail. So the risk seems manageable. Also I ordered an IG by intention.

The new Defender is very comfortable, and has many amenities and capabilities. No doubt. -

But if you go and talk to someone who really needs! an offroader - what all about this litte shit. I go in the vehicle, wearing muddy wellingtons perhaps. Sledgehammer, Axe and a chainsaw in the back. They think wtf. on electric adjustable chairs... dont need that.

They want something that can be maintained w/o visiting a garage of every litte issue. There is road works on a motorway north of Frankfurt. Build a new Motorway junction. So the works will take some time. They fix the vehicles from a mobile service during night and on site. This what IG can and perhaps also the MB G but not the ones with 3 letter code.

BTW - The MB G Wagon IS NOT GLE (formerly M ) GLS GLB GLC GLA That vehicles were not built on G platform - it is rather a SUV Version of Mercedes Benz S-Class, E Class and so on. Not even in distance comparable to G Wagon. - Had a GLK before- That is rather a C Class Mercedes than a G Wagon. 4 Matic type 4WD - and definitely not capable to go on wet grass. I tried it. Utterly failed. If any of this smaller SUV has some offroad capability then it is the Disco Sport - Most space, most headroom, and boot. Engine transverse allows for more usable room and it is capable to do some offroad.

 

[globalgregors]

Hm, even if you drove the Soccer Mum SUV around the world. .. I consider it from "general level" - this means from management view - "Where is the market for the car I want to sell"
Not from a customers intention what do I demand from a vehicle. That are 2 entirely different perspective.
Indeed when I told my friends I did order an IG - the answers were more like this - "Are you crazy - put a new car in to the dirt and it may get scratches and stains .. get an used car for this purpose and also - this is a brand new thingie - never proven in daily business. "
However its Magna who developed this, - Ineos is open what they do - and they have no options to fail. So the risk seems manageable. Also I ordered an IG by intention.

The new Defender is very comfortable, and has many amenities and capabilities. No doubt. -

But if you go and talk to someone who really needs! an offroader - what all about this litte shit. I go in the vehicle, wearing muddy wellingtons perhaps. Sledgehammer, Axe and a chainsaw in the back. They think wtf. on electric adjustable chairs... dont need that.

They want something that can be maintained w/o visiting a garage of every litte issue. There is road works on a motorway north of Frankfurt. Build a new Motorway junction. So the works will take some time. They fix the vehicles from a mobile service during night and on site. This what IG can and perhaps also the MB G but not the ones with 3 letter code.

BTW - The MB G Wagon IS NOT GLE (formerly M ) GLS GLB GLC GLA That vehicles were not built on G platform - it is rather a SUV Version of Mercedes Benz S-Class, E Class and so on. Not even in distance comparable to G Wagon. - Had a GLK before- That is rather a C Class Mercedes than a G Wagon. 4 Matic type 4WD - and definitely not capable to go on wet grass. I tried it. Utterly failed. If any of this smaller SUV has some offroad capability then it is the Disco Sport - Most space, most headroom, and boot. Engine transverse allows for more usable room and it is capable to do some offroad.

Yup, the field servicability is also a major factor for me. I grew up tinkering with pre-OBD vehicles and had to make an adjustment for the Disco but frankly I found the packaging more of an inconvenience than electronic complexity/electric seats/fancy interior.

[edited to dial back pretentiousness]

 

[emax]

The G W460 was easy to repair, although the parts were heavy and therefore not pleasant to handle. The 3-liter five-cylinder was indestructible.

However, over time there was a problem with rust.

 

[globalgregors]

The G W460 was easy to repair, although the parts were heavy and therefore not pleasant to handle. The 3-liter five-cylinder was indestructible.

However, over time there was a problem with rust.

I do like them. My wife however had an instant antipathy and if you’re going to spend a year in a vehicle you need to want to be in it.