Crystal Ball gazing - Petrol v Diesel

[HT]

There's been a lot of discussions about the pro's and con's of the two engines. I don't seek to rehash the points about range, torque, servicing costs etc. My question is a bit more specific.

Given the IG is built to last a few decades ... and given most countries have committed to full EV only new cars by 2035, it's timely to, stare into our tealeaves, scatter our chicken bones, or turn our tarot cards, in order to try to work out which of these two ICE engines will be the better choice in 2035 ... 2045 and beyond.

Let's assume that by 2035, all new cars being sold around the world are EV's, then the demand for petrol and diesel should be declining. My two competing thoughts are:
1. in an EV dominated world (2035 and beyond), the diesel will be seen as the dirtier of the two ICE options and hence less accepted - thus I should choose Petrol;
2. in an EV dominated world (2035 and beyond), diesel will still be critically needed to run heavy machinery, whereas petrol may become superfluous (used only in aging cars and two stroke lawn mowers), and hence less available/affordable - thus I should choose Diesel.

Thoughts?

 

[Davman]

There's been a lot of discussions about the pro's and con's of the two engines. I don't seek to rehash the points about range, torque, servicing costs etc. My question is a bit more specific.

Given the IG is built to last a few decades ... and given most countries have committed to full EV only new cars by 2035, it's timely to, stare into our tealeaves, scatter our chicken bones, or turn our tarot cards, in order to try to work out which of these two ICE engines will be the better choice in 2035 ... 2045 and beyond.

Let's assume that by 2035, all new cars being sold around the world are EV's, then the demand for petrol and diesel should be declining. My two competing thoughts are:
1. in an EV dominated world (2035 and beyond), the diesel will be seen as the dirtier of the two ICE options and hence less accepted - thus I should choose Petrol;
2. in an EV dominated world (2035 and beyond), diesel will still be critically needed to run heavy machinery, whereas petrol may become superfluous (used only in aging cars and two stroke lawn mowers), and hence less available/affordable - thus I should choose Diesel.

Thoughts?

In Australia, #2 in my book.

 

[Red pepper]

Where is the world going to be in 2035...???
I don't think even Crystal ball can tell..

 

[OGrid]

Australia: diesel all the way. Currently that’s the way in remote areas at the moment. Petrol also not available at all in many remote communities, especially WA. Only diesel.

North-East of Mildura at Easter this year it was either diesel or ULP (90 ron only). None of that fancy 94+ ULP.

I’m also betting with no substance that the ULP engine in the IG requires minimum 94 ron fuel (I really should look that up).

Update: RON 94-95 minimum is recommended. RON 95 preferable.

 

[OGrid]

On an interesting EV charging side note…

Africa: I just checked Tesla’s EV charging map, besides Morocco I can’t see a Tesla EV charger in Africa.

South America: I can’t see any Tesla EV charging, anywhere. Even Santiago de Chile which surprises me.

Australia: West of the divide, good luck. Qld and WA states - along the coast. (Edit: the Divide is the Great Dividing Mountain range that mostly runs inland up the length of the east coast of Australia - for forum members overseas)

Replacement of both petrol and diesel in many locations will take a long time. After my IG purchase any vehicle or motorcycle I do get will be electric though. No doubt about it - city purposes.

Find Us | Tesla

Use the interactive Find Us map to locate Tesla charging stations, service centers, galleries and stores on the go.

www.tesla.com

 

[klaus]

If I look in my crystal ball, then by 2035 we will have battery Technologies (e.g. solid state) that could easily have >1000km range and charge in a few minutes.
ICE will not be attractive anymore at this stage. Nobody will buy your current somewhat limited EV if that becomes available .... So no point in buying an EV now.....

 

[ECrider]

Unfortunately someone left my Crystal Ball in 'on' mode overnight so I now have to wait 3hrs for it to charge, back when it's working again.

 

[Sam]

very valid (essential) question... sure many have grappled

Diesel IG then EV thereafter, cross fingers, hope for the best

 

[PT70]

There's been a lot of discussions about the pro's and con's of the two engines. I don't seek to rehash the points about range, torque, servicing costs etc. My question is a bit more specific.

Given the IG is built to last a few decades ... and given most countries have committed to full EV only new cars by 2035, it's timely to, stare into our tealeaves, scatter our chicken bones, or turn our tarot cards, in order to try to work out which of these two ICE engines will be the better choice in 2035 ... 2045 and beyond.

Let's assume that by 2035, all new cars being sold around the world are EV's, then the demand for petrol and diesel should be declining. My two competing thoughts are:
1. in an EV dominated world (2035 and beyond), the diesel will be seen as the dirtier of the two ICE options and hence less accepted - thus I should choose Petrol;
2. in an EV dominated world (2035 and beyond), diesel will still be critically needed to run heavy machinery, whereas petrol may become superfluous (used only in aging cars and two stroke lawn mowers), and hence less available/affordable - thus I should choose Diesel.

Thoughts?

I am going with dIesel in the hope that the current work being done on diesel/hydrogen conversions has been successful and is a commercially viable option.

Engineers from UNSW Sydney have successfully converted a diesel engine to run as a hydrogen-diesel hybrid engine, reducing the CO2 emissions by more than 85 per cent in the process.10/10/2022

Diesel engines retrofitted to run on 90 per cent hydrogen | E&T Magazine​

 

[DCPU]

There's been a lot of discussions about the pro's and con's of the two engines. I don't seek to rehash the points about range, torque, servicing costs etc. My question is a bit more specific.

Given the IG is built to last a few decades ... and given most countries have committed to full EV only new cars by 2035, it's timely to, stare into our tealeaves, scatter our chicken bones, or turn our tarot cards, in order to try to work out which of these two ICE engines will be the better choice in 2035 ... 2045 and beyond.

Let's assume that by 2035, all new cars being sold around the world are EV's, then the demand for petrol and diesel should be declining. My two competing thoughts are:
1. in an EV dominated world (2035 and beyond), the diesel will be seen as the dirtier of the two ICE options and hence less accepted - thus I should choose Petrol;
2. in an EV dominated world (2035 and beyond), diesel will still be critically needed to run heavy machinery, whereas petrol may become superfluous (used only in aging cars and two stroke lawn mowers), and hence less available/affordable - thus I should choose Diesel.

Thoughts?

I don't think it makes any difference.

The market share of petrol vs diesel have moved significantly towards diesel in the last 20 years and is now moving away again (at least in the UK). I've been running both petrol and diesel cars/engines alongside each other for the last 40 years. Both fuels have been available. I suspect both will remain so, albeit maybe diesel will go back to not being available at every fuel station.

 

[DedkovCZE]

They can't ban gasoline or diesel, i think. It will end in civil war. Western people can pay for new EV. Mid and Eastern keep going older and older combustion cars. Whole this idea of EV seems ridiculous to me. Will you kill all animals 'cause they are farting? I think maybe idea is rich people will have EV etc. other poor people will have gasoline and maybe diesel and clima will be "happy".

 

[Logsplitter]

There's been a lot of discussions about the pro's and con's of the two engines. I don't seek to rehash the points about range, torque, servicing costs etc. My question is a bit more specific.

Given the IG is built to last a few decades ... and given most countries have committed to full EV only new cars by 2035, it's timely to, stare into our tealeaves, scatter our chicken bones, or turn our tarot cards, in order to try to work out which of these two ICE engines will be the better choice in 2035 ... 2045 and beyond.

Let's assume that by 2035, all new cars being sold around the world are EV's, then the demand for petrol and diesel should be declining. My two competing thoughts are:
1. in an EV dominated world (2035 and beyond), the diesel will be seen as the dirtier of the two ICE options and hence less accepted - thus I should choose Petrol;
2. in an EV dominated world (2035 and beyond), diesel will still be critically needed to run heavy machinery, whereas petrol may become superfluous (used only in aging cars and two stroke lawn mowers), and hence less available/affordable - thus I should choose Diesel.

Thoughts?

Petrol for me as I’ve already said in previous posts. But my thoughts on modern Diesel engines with all that emissions equipment were re confirmed to me yesterday. A contractor working for us has a 2020 Nissan Navarro. Around 70,000 miles on the clock and mainly long journeys. Constant DPF problem recently. Been into the dealers who burnt off quiet a bit off diesel on forced regenerations. One week later and dpf blocked again. that’s using low sulphur fuel and and regular servicing.
I can’t imagine a modern BMW engine will be any better when using high sulphur fuel in developing countries.
If only you could filter sulphur out then I would buy a diesel.
Petrol for me to drive around the world.

 

[G-Man]

Just think what kind of electric charging infrastructure you'd need to replace diesel powered trucks and boats and then figure out how long it's going to take to implement based on current charging station roll out for passenger cars which use a fraction of the power requirement..........

 

[Shaky]

I chose petrol and I’m in the UK. I thought I had reasoned it all out in my head and made the right choice.

Heard a few people’s counter arguments about freight wagons etc etc and thought….great point should I change. It’s too late now anyway and I look at the price of petrol v diesel and all the dpf and egr valve aggro and think, I can’t be othered with all that anymore.

What about synthetic petrol ? Not heard anyone mention that. If they can sort out mass production which will bring the price down then I can see that being a real deal breaker.

My thoughts now….you can’t make a bad choice at the minute. Only several years will reveal the right answer.

 

[OGrid]

I am going with dIesel in the hope that the current work being done on diesel/hydrogen conversions has been successful and is a commercially viable option.

Engineers from UNSW Sydney have successfully converted a diesel engine to run as a hydrogen-diesel hybrid engine, reducing the CO2 emissions by more than 85 per cent in the process.10/10/2022

Diesel engines retrofitted to run on 90 per cent hydrogen | E&T Magazine​

thanks for posting this. I was not aware this was even a remote possibility.

 

[PBD]

Good post. Ineos is well into hydrogen so I bet this will be a possibility further down the road.

 

[bigleonski]

Diesel for me, although issues around dusting and dirty fuel and other problems often makes me wonder about them.
Pros and cons for both.
All I need now is someone to justify why diesel is now 50 cents a litre dearer than unleadedin Australia, and it’s a byproduct of petrol anyway, and I’ll sleep better at night.

 

[Davman]

At 50 cents cheaper per litre more, its still cheaper per 100k than Unleaded (Benzine) is.

 

[bigleonski]

At 50 cents cheaper per litre more, its still cheaper per 100k than Unleaded (Benzine) is.

Yeah nah, I’d like to see the math on that. Maybe once apon a time.

 

[emax]

For the high sulfur problem it seems to be possible to deactivate the the exhaust gas recirculation. This is probably a software thing, in which case it could be done on the fly.