USA Grenadier Experience (Seattle Region) 11-12 May

[bemax]

Oh, and I was told the 5500 vehicle cap is to stay under the limits for CAFE restrictions. I suggested that the smaller EV rumored to come next would allow Ineos to import more Grenadiers, and the rep said that was exactly correct.

What does CAFE mean?

 

[Bruce]

What does CAFE mean?

Corporate Average Fuel Economy | NHTSA

Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards regulate how far vehicles must travel on a gallon of fuel. Learn more about CAFE & vehicle miles per gallon.

www.nhtsa.gov

 

[bemax]

If it helps decipher or narrow down the orders, my last 4 digits are 5368 and the reservation is dated June 9th, 2022.

I'm anticipating delivery sometime between Thanksgiving 2023 and my winning the Nobel prize for economics.

Which is at least not the most negative way of looking at it, as the Nobel prize is only giving to people who are still alive.
(The one for economics by the way isn’t a real Nobel prize and is called Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences.

This is most important for scientists that think economics are evil…

 

[ADVAW8S]

I believe it's the invoice number, not the reservation number, that dictates your "order number". My reservation is xx2388 but my invoice is xx0280. I ordered within 15 minutes of receiving the notification email on 9/29/21. If it is res number, @MurphyMurph having 0961 with a 2023 reservation date would mean there's something goofy going on. I wish it were more transparent with the explanation from Ineos which number it actually is. They keep saying order number but that isn't the wording used in any of their comms.

My invoice is in mid 300. I believe all the invoices also included everyone who put a deposit down. Could mean we are closer to the top 100 if you remove non-US buyers.

 

[BD1]

Oh, and I was told the 5500 vehicle cap is to stay under the limits for CAFE restrictions. I suggested that the smaller EV rumored to come next would allow Ineos to import more Grenadiers, and the rep said that was exactly correct.

So they have taken over 7000 US reservations with a 5500 limit?

 

[Krabby]

Even if that’s the case, I think it’s safe to say that at least 1500 people will not convert their reservation to a sale. 5500/7000 would be over 78% conversion percentage which seems awfully high. But Wednesday prices might affect that tremendously.

 

[Bruce]

The rep said they hit 8000 US reservations just a couple of days ago. They anticipate some not converting to orders (historically 30% in similar preorder systems), and not all of them are early reservations. Those who were early are expected to get their trucks by the end of the year, with later reservations coming early '24. Theoretically if you place a new reservation today they would expect to to take delivery in April.

 

[BD1]

Even if that’s the case, I think it’s safe to say that at least 1500 people will not convert their reservation to a sale. 5500/7000 would be over 78% conversion percentage which seems awfully high. But Wednesday prices might affect that tremendously.

It is going to be hard for the US to be the Grenadier's largest market with a limit of 5500/year.

 

[Krabby]

Maybe to start, but if/when the EV and/or hydrogen versions come about, CAFE standards should be more in check and then they might be able to import in greater quantities.

 

[DaveB]

It is going to be hard for the US to be the Grenadier's largest market with a limit of 5500/year.

I don't recall them ever saying the US was going to be their largest market

 

[BD1]

I don't recall them ever saying the US was going to be their largest market

From Sir Jim himself.....and I saw it another article that they expect US to be the largest market followed by the UK.

Wall Street Journal: "Next up, the U. S.—which Mr. Ratcliffe says he expects to be the Grenadier’s biggest market."

https://archive.ph/1wbsj#selection-621.145-621.237

 

[DaveB]

From Sir Jim himself.....and I saw it another article that they expect US to be the largest market followed by the UK.

Wall Street Journal: "Next up, the U. S.—which Mr. Ratcliffe says he expects to be the Grenadier’s biggest market."

https://archive.ph/1wbsj#selection-621.145-621.237

If they are making a maximum of 45,000 a year and the US is limited to 5,500 and UK limited to 6,500 then someone else is getting 33,000

 

[BD1]

If they are making a maximum of 45,000 a year and the US is limited to 5,500 and UK limited to 6,500 then someone else is getting 33,000

Yep - the math doesn't work

 

[Sturdy1977]

If they are making a maximum of 45,000 a year and the US is limited to 5,500 and UK limited to 6,500 then someone else is getting 33,000

That would mean a lot of trucks going to Australia!

 

[Eric]

That would mean a lot of trucks going to Australia!

Don't forget ROW they won't have restrictive quotas

 

[Msnow22]

I just wish someone would have information about the truck variant coming or nor and when. That would be helpful.

 

[Logsplitter]

If they are making a maximum of 45,000 a year and the US is limited to 5,500 and UK limited to 6,500 then someone else is getting 33,000

I think there’s 10,000 M1’s for the EU and 22,000 commercials for the EU of my head without trawling through the figures. Plus the African continent, they could sell a few in SA

 

[Krabby]

I just wish someone would have information about the truck variant coming or nor and when. That would be helpful.

Truck as in pickup/Ute? I’m sure Wednesday will not reveal that and we might have a lot of questions-albeit different questions-after the announcement. Maybe IA will have another Q&A session.

If I was a betting man though, I’d say it will not be making its way here anytime soon.

 

[DaveB]

That would mean a lot of trucks going to Australia!

Once you get a VTA or Vehicle Type Approval in Australia there is no limit to the number a company can import.
So Ineos can bring in as many as they can sell.
They don't have a 5 star safety rating (or any) so that may limit them a bit.
Once they sort out dealer demo stock and get some on the road I am sure the Station Wagon will be very popular for towing and work vehicles.
5,000+ per year should be easy from 2025 onwards
Once they get the dual cab ute I can easily see them selling 5,000 - 10,000 a year of those and that would only get them 2.5% - 5% of the 4 wd Ute market
Even Jeep has managed to sell 3,243 of the Gladiators since released in 2020

 

[singlefin]

Friday afternoon drive. Will definitely be ordering mine in magic mushroom.