Trump tariff. Ineos Automotive is dead right?

[HereinDaRockies]

There won’t be a 25% increase in new grenadiers. They estimate that IF across the board tariffs are on the EU, it would impact cars by $3k or a bit more! HOWEVER, remember, the Ineos is an ENGLISH car and the UK is NOT part of the EU!!

??? Toyota Tacomas made in Mexico are subject to the Mexico tariff. HQ being in UK has no influence on tariff rules.

Grenadiers are made in France, remember?

 

[mcdoogs]

Heh maybe those initial promises to build grenadiers in Wales will come true, and they’ll ship from Hambach to the UK for painting/final assembly or something

 

[SkiBum1]

??? Toyota Tacomas made in Mexico are subject to the Mexico tariff. HQ being in UK has no influence on tariff rules.

Grenadiers are made in France, remember?

No. It is assembled in France from parts from around the world. It is technically shipped into the USA from a UK company that owns it. So any EU tariffs will be partial at best! Don’t buy the new Porsche or BMW or VW, but for Ineos they are in a good position. Trump has no issues with the UK!

 

[mcdoogs]

Guys, the UK is NOT part of the EU!! No impact or very little on Ineos!!

Thats not really how it works as I understand it. It depends on where the goods are actually harvested/manufactured. In this case France.

Now Ineos could do something like ship US units to the UK and perform enough final assembly there to reasonably pass as UK-built. This would obviously add logistical and capital expenditure costs and heavily relies on the UK not being tariffed to be worth it. Which is a big assumption given how Canada/Mexico are being treated.

 

[HereinDaRockies]

No. It is assembled in France from parts from around the world. It is technically shipped into the USA from a UK company that owns it. So any EU tariffs will be partial at best! Don’t buy the new Porsche or BMW or VW, but for Ineos they are in a good position. Trump has no issues with the UK!

So there is another accounting for country of origin, during import?

The vehicle’s vin indicates manufactured in France. You are saying there is another factor that overwrites this, and buckets the vehicle into the UK country of origin?

I don’t know this well enough. Thought the manufactured location is indicative of how the tariff will target

 

[Zimm]

Sorry. The finished product is coming from France. Shipping thru another country only works if you can successfully (fraudulently) disguise the country of actual origin. I'm guessing thats kinda difficult with a car. It's subject to tariffs. I'm sure there will be applications for waivers submitted. Maybe they could ship the truck W/O the drivetrain and install here, if BMW and ZF are making those units here, (I don't know) and save a couple bucks, but that seems 1/2 dozen of one and 6 of another for the final cost.

 

[SkiBum1]

So there is another accounting for country of origin, during import?

The vehicle’s vin indicates manufactured in France. You are saying there is another factor that overwrites this, and buckets the vehicle into the UK country of origin?

I don’t know this well enough. Thought the manufactured location is indicative of how the tariff will target

It is a world vehicle, technically, however the importer and manufacturer is a UK company. They will declare the percentage of components from different countries. Keep in mind that most parts are literally from all over the world and France makes nothing except wine and fois gras.
The biggest part of the car is the bmw engine, but I’ll bet the vast majority of parts are from Asia, N and S America and other places, including the UK (where they have designed, IP, all HQ and overhead, sales, marketing etc…. ). I’ll bet more than half the declared value of the cars is unrelated to the parts!

 

[FlyersFan76]

No. It is assembled in France from parts from around the world. It is technically shipped into the USA from a UK company that owns it. So any EU tariffs will be partial at best! Don’t buy the new Porsche or BMW or VW, but for Ineos they are in a good position. Trump has no issues with the UK!

The BMW's and MB's assembled in the US. Same with Jeeps built in the US wouldn't even though they are a foreign owned company. Some GM's and Fords could be hit with a tax because they are built outside the US.

 

[pmatusov]

Numbers don’t back you up at all. G wagon sales are up. I was just at the dealer and lockerless units abound. Mercedes can’t keep any Gs on the lot let alone lower models. If Gwagon shoppers shopped grens, they wouldn’t be there. There’s no Gren shortage after 4 month hiatus. They don’t want a car a bronco buyer can afford to drive. It’s just a simple observation. No bias.

What numbers? I never doubted that G-wagen sales are up. Just saying thar G crowd is not all the same as in P-burgh or elsewhere on the East Coast.

 

[mcdoogs]

Im pretty sure

It is a world vehicle, technically, however the importer and manufacturer is a UK company. They will declare the percentage of components from different countries. Keep in mind that most parts are literally from all over the world and France makes nothing except wine and fois gras.
The biggest part of the car is the bmw engine, but I’ll bet the vast majority of parts are from Asia, N and S America and other places, including the UK (where they have designed, IP, all HQ and overhead, sales, marketing etc…. ). I’ll bet more than half the declared value of the cars is unrelated to the parts!

tariffs though are based on the harmonized code (this determines the type of good) and manufacturers certificate of origin (this determines the origin).

Where the component parts come from are not (i mean, basically impossible to verify by customs) are not a factor as I understand things and a brief verification via the internet supports this.

So when we buy a new Grenadier, we get a Certificate of Origin that defines the ownership transfer from Ineos Automotive USA to us. There is another transfer that happens at the port of entry, from Ineos Auto to Ineos Auto USA (this is the legal corporate entity incorporated in the US). That involves it's own Certificate of Origin, which obviously we the consumer dont have but that I'm 99% specifies France as the origin of the car. That transfer is where the tariff will need to be paid to the CBP agents at the port of entry, which then will be passed on to the consumer.

 

[Zimm]

The premise of this thread was about how tariff changes would specifically affect Ineos Automotive in the US. Please steer back to that as this quickly shifted into broader political discussion and we do not want that on the board. If we cannot shift things back to focus solely on IA-related tariff impact the thread will be closed.

Thank you for your understanding.

FYI, it's your site. I am by no means offended if you choose to delete my post.

 

[Trialmaster]

It has to be a political thread, because if tariffs are enabled against the EU that is a political decision by the soon to be deposed financial powerhouse of the Western world by the Chinese.

Of course it will affect Ineos, as Grenadiers are manufactured in Europe and not the UK. I understand why Trump is implementing tariffs, but I don't think the outcome has been totally thought through.

Will it kill the Ineos Grenadier, maybe? Only Lynn Calder and her team will know, hopefully there is enough profit being produced in the rest of the worlds markets.

 

[mcdoogs]

So back to the OP topic. The way I see it, tariffs applied to the EU siimilar to the Canada/Mexico tariffs (ie blanket on all imports) will, on their own, exert a few main downward pressures on Ineos Auto sales in the US:

• Increasing price will, obviously, price some percentage of consumers out. That's just how things work, some percentage of people who want and can afford the Grenadier will be priced out completely. Another percentage of consumers will find the change in the value proposition undesirable.
  • Downmarket alternatives like the new 4Runner are significantly less expensive now. Add 10-25% to the Grenadier and now you are approaching 2x the cost. Much is being made of G-wagen buyers in this thread, but the G-Wagen just posted record US sales in 2024 so there isn't a noticeable impact yet. And we are still talking 10k units. Even if the Grenadier steals 10% of that market it's only 1k cars. Will that fully make up for the downmarket losses? I have doubts.
• The used market should heat up a bit, which generally isn't great for the new car market. Not sure exactly how this will effect new grenadier sales as used grenadier sales as the used market is tiny, but owners could see increased valuations
• Overall economic downturn. This is just objectively proven by data. Tariffs negatively effect economies and doubly so for consumer spending based ecconomies like the US. The slower the economy, the few the pool of consumers who can and will afford expensive imported vehicles.

The most dangerous impact from the consumer perspective is the impact on dealers, who are essentially small businesses reliant on selling these new cars. The network is already incredibly sparse, so I'm more worried about that situation getting worse than Ineos Auto shutting down operations in the US altogether. If tariffs are levied and stick around past when current inventory is exhausted, I think this will be a major issue for dealers.

 

[Roach]

The tariff might be the best possible news for the US dealers with cars on the lot helping them unload inventory that might be getting close to a year old. Not certain though, this car has an extremely 'narrow' market and even if the old inventory were 15 to 25k less than a 2025 (with tariffs) it still a tough sell. I don't think there are many people on this forum that would trade price for functionality.

 

[mcdoogs]

The tariff might be the best possible news for the US dealers with cars on the lot helping them unload inventory that might be getting close to a year old. Not certain though, this car has an extremely 'narrow' market and even if the old inventory were 15 to 25k less than a 2025 (with tariffs) it still a tough sell. I don't think there are many people on this forum that would trade price for functionality.

There is not really much if any difference between 2024 and 2025 afaik. The only addition is the tow bar in the US. Probably with the same wiring issues. 2024 models imo are the smarter buy even before any still-theoretical added taxes, if you can find one with your must-have options on a lot.

I think its been generally proven that online forum communities are not representative of the broader consumer base.

 

[Trialmaster]

Looks like the USA will go into recession following these tariffs, followed by Mexico and Canada. Will need some imaginative thinking for the USA to overcome this one.

 

[holdmybeer]

Looks like the USA will go into recession following these tariffs, followed by Mexico and Canada. Will need some imaginative thinking for the USA to overcome this one.

I assume the USA actually wants the direct outcome of these tariffs. They voted for the current administration who promised exactly these tariffs.

In a populist democracy, be careful what you wish for. You have a good chance of getting it. Especially if it waves a flag and talks tough.

 

[Roach]

There is not really much if any difference between 2024 and 2025 afaik. The only addition is the tow bar in the US. Probably with the same wiring issues. 2024 models imo are the smarter buy even before any still-theoretical added taxes, if you can find one with your must-have options on a lot.

I think its been generally proven that online forum communities are not representative of the broader consumer base.

Agree, no huge changes for MY25 which, in theory, should help move the 100's of 24's on the lots but... if the ones on the lots are turds then price might be the only motivator (ie: sans lockers, hitch, etc). My point is that tariffs could create a price delta that looks enticing.

I somewhat disagree with "forum communities are not representative of the broader consumer base", I think it is representative and explains why current inventory is not moving. I haven't talked with or heard of an IG owner that was exclusively using it as a DD. Now, it might be a DD but they always talk about the "adventure"

 

[Eric]

They have a surplus right now. All our local distilleries appear to be laying off a few staff here and there. The rates of duty are criminal. The govt. get more £ from every bottle of malt than anyone else!

Sorry. Politics, whisky and Grenadiers dont’t mix. One time when, as the scientists call it, ‘cognitive fluidity’ is a bane.

I suspect you are doing your bit to reduce that surplus, such dedication to helping the industry out

 

[Coullabus]

I suspect you are doing your bit to reduce that surplus, such dedication to helping the industry out

Oh indubitably