Trump tariff. Ineos Automotive is dead right?

[CRH]

Just negativity when we have no idea on the end result does look like someone is either batting for the other party or trolling the product.
We like the product so purchased, it cost more than expected, we still bought into it, now it's going to cost more, guess what, so will everything else. IA will no doubt go to supplier and screw them down, that's how business works.
Ultimately, it's only just been announced and people are suggesting IA will shut down. Of course it's a worry, did anyone buy not worried about a new vehicle manufacturer, if so then you had your head in the sand. Fisher is US company and that went bust, people bought them, negativity killed the company as people then stopped buying, yes it was struggling but press saying it's on the brink instantly kills sales.
When companies go into administration people moan they lost money and the company should have told them before hand. If every company put their hand up and said 'we depend on this sale or we go under' their wouldn't be many around. All startups are like that, many big companies are in even worse positions, it's all smoke and mirrors. Negativity kills business and economies, positivity makes them thrive. Head in the sand or not, it's how the world works.

 

[mcdoogs]

I think as a society, we are failing our next generation. Blanket statements have become the narrative and we are lacking the willingness to wait for all details.

I wrote this as we have no clue what the tariffs will be. People may not realize that currently there are tariffs on majority of our goods. People don't realize, that items can be excluded from the tariffs. We all talk about the chicken tax but forget that chicken tax targeted a style of vehicle. The important piece which we don't know is what and how is the tariff written. Here is a great piece discussing the estimated impact of tariffs. It is a 15 to 20 min read, much more context than it's the end of the world.

Tracking the Economic Impact of the Trump Tariffs

The Trump administration imposed nearly $80 billion worth of new taxes on Americans by levying tariffs on thousands of products in 2018 and 2019, amounting to one of the largest tax increases in decades. The Biden administration has kept most of the Trump administration tariffs in place

taxfoundation.org

Below is link to weighted mean of current tariffs.

U.S. Tariff Rates 1989-2025

Weighted mean applied tariff is the average of effectively applied rates weighted by the product import shares corresponding to each partner country. Data are classified using the Harmonized System of trade at the six- or eight-digit level. Tariff line data were matched to Standard International...

www.macrotrends.net

I'm not sure how this article supports your 'everything is fine' argument. The 25% mexican/canadian 10% additional china tariff represents a pretty destructive outcome by those numbers. They are also by all accounts blanket tariffs. Add an EU broad tariff to that and the negative effects compound.

Let's not forget this flat tax revenue from Americans is going to fund tax cuts for the richest and corporations. That will also have negative long term effects. Less people able to afford buying depreciating consumer goods like luxury vehicles cannot be good for any auto maker.

 

[CRH]

Nothing you said in your original post was positive though. You offered no argument nor data to refute what seems like a fairly obvious conclusion that adding 10-25% to the price of an already expensive vehicle will negatively effect sales in the second largest automovie market in the world. Maybe even to the point of Ineos pulling out of the US, which would not be great for the company.

You original post basically just talked shit and implied that the OP was a toyota plant or something, which is a weird thing to bother to post.

It wasn't positive as the original post wasn't

 

[mcdoogs]

It wasn't positive as the original post wasn't

Ah the 'they started it' argument.

 

[Cheshire cat]

I disagree, just because I am that customer.... I however also looked at Jeep and Ford my driveway has had G's and LR's for a while now. The Ineos too me was the perfect replacement of both. Also they were pavement queens

I was a potential G-Wagon buyer, although at the lower end of the price scale.
I firmly believe the Grenadier is the equal to the G-Wagon. The understatement of the Grenadier is a big draw to me also.

 

[pmatusov]

i don’t believe Ineos is competing for g wagon customers. Paying 150-200k is very different than paying 80k

Not yet. But G wagon customers are paying close attention. If they want a Grenadier at 150k, I am sure Ineos will oblige.

 

[Zimm]

MB’s existence is not reliant on sales of the g wagon. We have no idea what margins are on the g wagon.

HuuUUuuUuuuUuuuUgE. I was surprised when the redid the consumer unit into a mall crawler. They seemed to be raking it in just slapping leather into military rig and selling it to people looking for the badge.

 

[Zimm]

I disagree, just because I am that customer.... I however also looked at Jeep and Ford my driveway has had G's and LR's for a while now. The Ineos too me was the perfect replacement of both. Also they were pavement queens

You're an outlier. If Merc wanted the same market they would have adapted a 461. They already had the product sitting there for 20 years, why redo the whole thing in 2019 to address modern shortcomings and housewife complaints? None, and I mean NONE, of my neighbors with a new G are the least bit interested in this interior, or anything other than calling up the Merc dealer to pick it up for service. Steering that causes the wife to say "wtf?", no seat adjustments, shitty stereo, one door lock button, a manual tcase, no rear seat luxury, no V8, NVH drone at highway speeds, NVH drone at lights, clanky downshifts... These would be on the used lot in 6 months as a mistake in that market. These fit the Nantucket beach houst aesthetic as a Defender 110nas replacement. Not a big market.

 

[pmatusov]

None, and I mean NONE, of my neighbors with a new G are the least bit interested in this interior,

You are once again extrapolating Pittsburgh to the rest of the country.
Not that in the West G-wagen owners are all into off-roading, but there's just enough that are that could make up a half of Grenadier's market. I had multiple conversations with G-wagen owners at C&Cs in SoCal - they were genuinely interested.

When I was waiting for my truck at Mossy Ineos yesterday, I flipped through DuPont Registry. All of the East Coast cars and trucks are for show only - Miami mostly, but the rest follows.

 

[shiv.nandak]

With respect. You won't be paying only 80.000 dollars very soon. Ineos have also come out with a deluxe version prices at around £130,000 plus extras, here in UK.

Would you mind elaborating on this? Ineos is coming out with a more expensive version of the Grenadier? Where can I find more information?

 

[mcdoogs]

You are once again extrapolating Pittsburgh to the rest of the country.
Not that in the West G-wagen owners are all into off-roading, but there's just enough that are that could make up a half of Grenadier's market. I had multiple conversations with G-wagen owners at C&Cs in SoCal - they were genuinely interested.

When I was waiting for my truck at Mossy Ineos yesterday, I flipped through DuPont Registry. All of the East Coast cars and trucks are for show only - Miami mostly, but the rest follows.

I don't know that 'i talk to a lot of people' is a great data point, especially since G class sales went up in the US 12% YoY in 2024. The Grenadier certainly hasnt stolen much market share so far.

I don't know what the reasoning behind this G-class tangent is at all tbh, besides maybe humble bragging. Makes no sense to me in the context of the future health of Ineos in the US. I think a far better conversation is how many sales will be lost to the new 4Runner/LC/GX if the Grenadier is 15-25% more expensive than it already is. I think that's a potentially much larger loss than stealing a little upmarket share from Mercedes. Toyota could very well start making those models in the US too, they already have factories here pumping out Tacoma/Tundras which share the underlying platform.

 

[Mudnut]

Not living in the US, I am not sure what import tariffs are already in place. The Quartermaster already has the 25% Chicken Tax. Not sure what sales figures there is on these models so far.

 

[mcdoogs]

Would you mind elaborating on this? Ineos is coming out with a more expensive version of the Grenadier? Where can I find more information?

Arcane Works Detour

ineosgrenadier.com

 

[Dokatd]

You're an outlier. If Merc wanted the same market they would have adapted a 461. They already had the product sitting there for 20 years, why redo the whole thing in 2019 to address modern shortcomings and housewife complaints? None, and I mean NONE, of my neighbors with a new G are the least bit interested in this interior, or anything other than calling up the Merc dealer to pick it up for service. Steering that causes the wife to say "wtf?", no seat adjustments, shitty stereo, one door lock button, a manual tcase, no rear seat luxury, no V8, NVH drone at highway speeds, NVH drone at lights, clanky downshifts... These would be on the used lot in 6 months as a mistake in that market. These fit the Nantucket beach houst aesthetic as a Defender 110nas replacement. Not a big market.

Gotta say you are way off base! Firstly I own a Gwagon and a Grenadier. Second, when I bought the Gren I was also looking at another G wagon. Third, I live close to and have many friends that live in one of the richest cities in Texas. It's a super small dense area where if you don't drive a 100k plus vehicle then you don't belong. The density of G wagons is kinda nuts. They all love the Grenadier and want to buy one. Sadly most back out after the test drive. Not due to the interior, they seem to love it. But rather the handling (steering).

Regardless, a Gwagon buyer is a prospective Grenadier buyer. Once or if Ineos improves their product they will be set firmly in the G wagon market.

 

[Emil]

European majority view seems to be that new general US tariffs on European goods can be avoided by Europe importing more US LNG, by increasing defense spending, and by buying more US military goods. This would not rule out specific tariffs on certain goods, meant to exert influence on individual countries, but spare European cars. Perhaps European tariffs on US cars would need to be lowered as well for reciprocity or rather perception because Europe does not have big market potential for US cars. The only remaining question would then be the US chicken tax on pickups and how it could be avoided. Nobody believes the ages old chicken tax will be abandoned. Maybe it could be avoided through US toleration of knock downs (disassembly in Europe before export and reassembly in the US after import), if attractive for Ineos. Hard to predict, though - politics sometimes follow strange inner logic, and maybe my assessment is biased by my personal view that the Quartermaster is the one vehicle that offers the most potential of all. As to the G wagon, at least in Germany it is widely considered a car that signals wealth while still offering the comfort of a tractor. Signal is, the owner can afford a car that is pointless offroad, in the city, and on highways, is a gas guzzler and takes up traffic space.