Americas Ineos says their communication delays are due to too many pre-orders

[holdmybeer]

I received this email from Ineos customer service this morning (2023-08-15):

Hi ______, Apologies for the delay in communicating your production slot. The pre-orders have been more successful than anticipated which is a nice problem to have, however, it has meant that we will now be communicating the production slots in the next few weeks. Thank you for your patience whilst we go through this process. Please feel free to contact us if there is anything else we can assist with. Thanks, Laura INEOS Grenadier Customer Service

 

[DrahthHunter]

They should cut the pre orders off at a pre determined number I don’t know what that number is 6-8k i think to keep it under cafe standards if they go over it can’t make it into the country

 

[anand]

They should cut the pre orders off at a pre determined number I don’t know what that number is 6-8k i think to keep it under cafe standards if they go over it can’t make it into the country

If they exceed CAFE limits, I believe it is a penalty, not a full stop of importation

 

[DrahthHunter]

If they exceed CAFE limits, I believe it is a penalty, not a full stop of importation

Either way it’s not good

 

[ADVAW8S]

If they exceed CAFE limits, I believe it is a penalty, not a full stop of importation

You are correct, they are fine.

 

[stratego]

They should cut the pre orders off at a pre determined number I don’t know what that number is 6-8k i think to keep it under cafe standards if they go over it can’t make it into the country

Current 2023+2024 estimates for US sales of the Grenadier is ~6K (with an estimate ~6K units a year afterwards) according to IHS. IHS gets information from suppliers about orders for specific programs, so they are generally accurate-ish.

You need a lot of pre-orders to convert 6K orders a year.

 

[anand]

Current 2023+2024 estimates for US sales of the Grenadier is ~6K (with an estimate ~6K units a year afterwards) according to IHS. IHS gets information from suppliers about orders for specific programs, so they are generally accurate-ish.

You need a lot of pre-orders to convert 6K orders a year.

Based on numbers in the form, there are around 7,000 pre orders

 

[Sam]

You need a lot of pre-orders to convert 6K orders a year.

this

my guess is that about 50% of pre-orders get converted

 

[Tazzieman]

Sound like Ineos' much touted lean business model could do with a few more employees.

 

[Stu_Barnes]

If they exceed CAFE limits, I believe it is a penalty, not a full stop of importation

That’s my understanding as well, but it’s pricy….

 

[DaveB]

this

my guess is that about 50% of pre-orders get converted

No way
easily 58.7697%

 

[anand]

this

my guess is that about 50% of pre-orders get converted

My guess is closer to 85%+; something along the lines of 60-70% of reservations converted to pre-orders; far fewer people are backing out after placing a pre-order for the vehicle

 

[DaBull]

My guess is closer to 85%+; something along the lines of 60-70% of reservations converted to pre-orders; far fewer people are backing out after placing a pre-order for the vehicle

I am with you. Most will follow through with the purchase. Hopefully the ones that don't purchase allows the dealers to make a better margin and allows us to keep our MSRP purchase price. DaBull

 

[Krabby]

My guess is closer to 85%+; something along the lines of 60-70% of reservations converted to pre-orders; far fewer people are backing out after placing a pre-order for the vehicle

But, how many of those preorders will ultimately back out since we're not required to place the "lock in" $5,000 that our international friends were required. I think there are plenty of folks who - depending on the state of any issues with the vehicles - may walk away when push comes to shove. That could leave dealers with unanticipated stock that they will either be greedy and mark up or go the other way and have difficulty selling them. I trust it is the former, but LR found with the original NAS Defenders that the market for vehicles like these was pretty fickle.

 

[AWo]

Initially 25000 engines were requested from BMW for 2023. Later I heard 35000. If that is correct, this is the number of cars of 2023. I have no exact number for 2024 except that it is bigger. On the other hand, that requires suppliers to check their cash, as wenn the supply contracts are signed, production must start and financed beforehand. For smaller suppliers that can become a challenge or not possible at all. That could mean, that new suppliers need to be found and integrated.

AWo

 

[Gunner33]

It's interesting, the email many of us in NA received this week about the dealer announcement on Sept 28th states we will now need to contact the local dealer rep vs them reaching out to us. That's fine, but what is the cutoff point dealers and Ineos need to firm up all NA '24 orders? When will the push come to shove happen so the dealer and Ineos know x preorder amount did not convert? I assume new dealers now have a schedule and forecasts they are trying to meet for Ineos for the first NA go around. I also assume the rest of us who placed a preorder will be required to lock in some type of deposit when/if we agree to the contract, hopefully at the online MSRP we placed it at. I guess I thought they would chase us preorder folks first to determine who's in/out, get us taken care of, and them go full blast after new business knowing better what they are trying to meet for quotas.

 

[DaveB]

It's interesting, the email many of us in NA received this week about the dealer announcement on Sept 28th states we will now need to contact the local dealer rep vs them reaching out to us. That's fine, but what is the cutoff point dealers and Ineos need to firm up all NA '24 orders? When will the push come to shove happen so the dealer and Ineos know x preorder amount did not convert? I assume new dealers now have a schedule and forecasts they are trying to meet for Ineos for the first NA go around. I also assume the rest of us who placed a preorder will be required to lock in some type of deposit when/if we agree to the contract, hopefully at the online MSRP we placed it at. I guess I thought they would chase us preorder folks first to determine who's in/out, get us taken care of, and them go full blast after new business knowing better what they are trying to meet for quotas.

Keep in mind they are still getting orders from the rest of the world and have to also start building the Quartermaster soon.