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Ineos Chemicals in Debt (is IA safe?).

Sorry, I don't undertand this term.
AWo
Viable Cottage industries - small independent shops making niche parts in small runs for a dedicated, but small audience. Where it gets really exciting is where there is enough resource and enthusiasm to reverse engineer the CanBus and similar.

Best example I can think of the is niche Subaru ecosystem, where almost any performance enhancement is available for a price outside of factory support. There are just enough fanatics willing to spend sufficient money to keep businesses afloat.
 
Isn't that what I told? If you're not sponsored by Mother Inc. Ltd. like many other car manufacturers (Aston Martin (which belongs to ProDrive), Bentley, etc.) it is difficult to survive. Now Ineos is facing a hard chemical business. The chemical business is forced to painful austerity measures and has heavy expenditures themselves (Project One Antwerp, China plant and some acquisitions of te last year like a plant in the south of France), so JR needs to step back from all his "interests" which doesn't earn a cent.

And I assume we can agree that IA is far from selling 50k units a year....I predict, they never will.

I am still convinced that they have better started with a more mass compatible cheaper entry modell, leaving the fancy stuff for the more (and less) healthy ones (and thereby agreeing with what APSW was claiming). Doing so generates a steady income. But beside missing this I believe that their non- and bad communication as well as quality issues doesn't do them a favour. Especially in the beginning when JR forced deliveries while the car wasn't ready (remember the weeks were the cars were sitting at the dealer, parts had to be changed etc.) cost them a lot of reputation (and money). Which guy who runs a business can afford having his Grenadier sitting at the dealer for six weeks. And not all cars can be substituted with a loaner. If you sell commercial cars the might be modified to transport tools etc. A loaner doesn't help here. The price kills the Grenadier for a broader commercial use, as well. As it does for the VW Amarok, MB X-Class, etc.

Of course, you see nothing of that in the media, there is everything fine&shine. But the talk behind closed doors within the small 4x4 scene (at least in Europe) was anything but hepful. I had a lot conversations with people doing business with the Grenadier and need a good reputation but at the bar with a beer in our hands, they were very unhappy with Ineos.

You can like or love the Grenadier and see Ineos as a holy company with JR as the high priest, but the numbers doesn't care about that. And I repeat myself, don't forget, Ineos growth in business is one of buying and selling (already) running companies in a market where money was earned relatively easy (the last decades). Ineos almost never raised something on their own. So don't confuse their success in the chemical business with other buisinesses they do, like building cars. In addition, they are facing a lot of challenges, because countries and companies try to become more independent of China. That means, that chemical capacities are increasing globally as new plants are raised in different countries, generating more competition in a market which doesn't change its size at the same time, in fact which is deacreasing actually.

AWo
You have been around here longer than I have. Can you clear something up for me? Do you own a Grenadier?
 
Viable Cottage industries - small independent shops making niche parts in small runs for a dedicated, but small audience. Where it gets really exciting is where there is enough resource and enthusiasm to reverse engineer the CanBus and similar.

Best example I can think of the is niche Subaru ecosystem, where almost any performance enhancement is available for a price outside of factory support. There are just enough fanatics willing to spend sufficient money to keep businesses afloat.
Exactly. The interest is there for sure and there’s almost enough people invested from a customer point of view to totally make that viable. I hope

The flip side of INEOS starting sales in China may be that the Bosch software package falls into the wrong hands and becomes a little more open source…..
 
For those thinking the depreciation of Grenadiers means we got a bad deal, you can always comfort yourself with another twisted logic that is often used when talking about young car companies: According to this thread, so far Ineos has spent $3.4 Billion (I suspect this figure is low) and sold only 20K cars. That means each car cost $170K. I paid a lot less than that for my IG so I got a great deal.

Of course that's not a logical way to look at the investment. An analogy of why that is faulty logic would be a new pizza restaurant that cost $500k to build. After the first week of business they sold 1000 pizzas for $50 each. Therefore they lost $450 per pizza sold.

Why is that faulty logic? The fact that the investment in the pizza restaurant was not fully paid-off in the first week of sales, does not mean it is doomed to fail or that the owner lost $450 per pizza. It was a longer term investment that may never need to recover the initial investment, provided the operating income exceeds the operating costs and the cost of debt, then there is "profit" to be had.

The same is true for Ineos Automotive, provided the materials and labor that go into each unit, together with a proportional share of the cost of overhead and debt, are less than the price earned by Ineos when that unit is sold, then that unit is part of a profitable business model.

On the exceedingly rare occasion when I think about the depreciation that my IG has undoubtedly suffered since I bought it new; I comfort myself with the fact that I have no plans to sell it, and that the fun and memories it has given me over the past year plus and 15,000 miles was worth every cent of imaginary depreciation.
 
The flip side of INEOS starting sales in China may be that the Bosch software package falls into the wrong hands and becomes a little more open source…..
The down-side being I cannot read Mandarin! Still, the pictures would be nice.
 
The down-side being I cannot read Mandarin! Still, the pictures would be nice.
If firmware source or mods or anything important for the Grenadier starts flowing out China, I'm confident good English translations will happen. And pretty quickly IME. The second generation of documentation can be even better, with more eyes on it, because it's often done by enthusiasts in the community rather than by a employee doing the bare minimum.

I say this with analogous history in non-automotive specialties like the wild west of Chinese parts, clones, and mods for computers, electronics, CNC parts, radio transceivers, etc. Community translations and documentation can be excellent. So many examples on the forum of everyone sharing varying levels of mods, instructions, docs, etc. @anand @Rok_Dr etc etc. So if Ineos Automotive goes tits-up, or if it doesn, bring on the Chinese support and it'll get sorted. (y) I've been known to speak Mandarin. Poorly. Can't read a damn thing though.
 
I drive by Rusnak Ineos almost daily. Their inventory appears to be turning over.
Could be... Rusnak was one of the dealers that I have been watching. They have had 50+ cars for several weeks/months. These are all 2024's and while I might be making a big assumption that they haven't received any new inventory in the last 30 days, maybe longer that number has been the same less a few.

Another assumption (bigger than above (smile:) If the dealer is getting around 7% per sale they need to be moving 1 to 2 per day to cover expenses (floor plan, SG&A, space, mechanics, etc). Based on the VINs, some of the inventory is getting long-in-the-tooth which IMO puts added pressure on the floor plan.

I was an "orderer", part of the original 2023 deliveries but not an owner. I think there is something here that merits a "rescue" but I'm not certain what that looks like so I follow and comment to dig into what other people are seeing. It's a fascinating study as becoming a coach builder or car maker is the easiest it has been in the last century but with lots of casualties.

Maybe another thread should be about what can owners do to make this the car company they want it to be.
 
Name one Euro manufacturer that isn't significantly affected/ worried by the rise of Asian car companies. Audi has announced a new policy of profit per car over units sold ( wealthy buyers happy to pay a premium for the brand cachet).
Whatever happens, as with other niche brands the world of Grenadiers will rest on the shoulders of enthusiasts. Tough economic times out there now and in the future , but...

View: https://youtu.be/tG25f13s2JA?feature=shared
 
There was much fanfare about kicking off in China.
Potentially massive market.

I wonder how that has gone?????
I don't see the Grenadier working well in China. Several reasons why:

1) Taxes on imported vehicles are very high, making imported vehicles dramatically more expensive compared to average earnings.

2) There are a lot more restrictions on where (and when) you can drive in China, so an overlanding vehicle has a very narrow market of potential customers.

3) In Shanghai, to get a license plate for an ICE vehicle, you have to join a lottery. If you win, the plate is about $50,000 USD. I assume other major Chinese cities have similar restrictions. (For an electric car, you don't have to do a lottery and the registration is free.)

4) There are a lot of much cheaper options for China (like the GWM Tank).

5) The off-roading community is small and young in China.
 
I don't see the Grenadier working well in China. Several reasons why:

1) Taxes on imported vehicles are very high, making imported vehicles dramatically more expensive compared to average earnings.

2) There are a lot more restrictions on where (and when) you can drive in China, so an overlanding vehicle has a very narrow market of potential customers.

3) In Shanghai, to get a license plate for an ICE vehicle, you have to join a lottery. If you win, the plate is about $50,000 USD. I assume other major Chinese cities have similar restrictions. (For an electric car, you don't have to do a lottery and the registration is free.)

4) There are a lot of much cheaper options for China (like the GWM Tank).

5) The off-roading community is small and young in China.
Re 5., greenfield to a certain degree but your other 4 points are valid obstacle's.
 
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I know almost nothing about the Chinese car market, but there was speculation that it might appeal to wealthy Chinese fans of the old Defender. Not sure how true that is or how big the market is. I've seen a few aftermarket accessories on ebay that seem targeted to Chinese buyers (red colored handles, gear knobs...)
 
Next cut in sponsorhip is ahead. Ineos wants to end their six years sponsorhip as the 4x4 partner for Tottenham Hotspur, which promoted the Grenadier. Two years earlier than agreed on.



Screenshot_20250220_222931_Firefox.jpg

AWo
 
Quote from this article:


"One of the biggest drains on Ineos’s coffers is its car business. Ratcliffe set up Ineos Automotive to create a new off-road vehicle after Land Rover’s owner JLR turned its rugged Defender into a premium SUV.

Yet even billionaires have struggled to build new car companies. James Dyson, a fellow super-rich manufacturer (and another Brexit backer) said he blew £500m on building an electric car that never took to roads. Ratcliffe appears to have outdone him: Ineos Automotive has burned through €1.4bn since 2018, and it had another €2.3bn in debt at the end of 2023.

That was before the collapse of a seat supplier in September forced it to pause production for three months. A person with knowledge of its operations said the company was ramping up production at its factory in France (which was chosen ahead of a plant in south Wales) although it had been affected by the slow demand felt across the car

3,7bn burned...some call it success and everything is running according to the plan...

Whar I didn't know was that he bought the Grenadier Pub....which made a loss of 1,4 million in 2023...

AWo
ouch.
 
TD5-90, You're always giving AWo the disbeleiving rolly eyes. Can you do something for us like... I dunnknow...... point out where he's in error? Go for it. Shut him up. Fact check him and prove to the crowd he's worth your constant scorn. Persoanlly I'm just interested in the data and his information seems rather direct and convincing, so if he's spewing shit, I'd love to know, but all I read from you is baby faces from the sideline. If you have something, do us a favor and share it.
 
Next cut in sponsorhip is ahead. Ineos wants to end their six years sponsorhip as the 4x4 partner for Tottenham Hotspur, which promoted the Grenadier. Two years earlier than agreed on.



View attachment 7887731

AWo
@AWo thanks for posting. Not taking sides as I think that passion projects have a high probability of losing their luster but could bowing out of these sponsorships be a part of rebranding, ie: moving from purpose built to a lifestyle (Subaru or Jeep)? As I write that…I don’t believe it but I hit enter anyway:)
 
Next cut in sponsorhip is ahead. Ineos wants to end their six years sponsorhip as the 4x4 partner for Tottenham Hotspur, which promoted the Grenadier. Two years earlier than agreed on.



View attachment 7887731

AWo
That makes sense and I'm surprised it wasn't ended when they bought as share in Man United. Silly sponsorship of Tottenham when you own Manchester United
 
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