Do you think that the change of government in the US will harm Ineos?

[Paco Garcia]

As we all know, Ineos is, so to speak, in "Technical Stop" because, from what we have been told, the problem is the bankruptcy of Recaro, but it is also true that its sales expectations in Europe have not been met, and from what I have read, its largest market is the United States, in the face of a sharp rise in tariffs on cars from outside the US. Something that has been said by the future Government, what would be the future of Ineos. I do not intend to be defeatist at all, or to say that Ineos is thinking of closing, but this would not benefit it at all. What do you think?

Regards
Paco Garcia

Google Translator

 

[Jeffrey]

Mr. Orangepeel simply HATES anything that he can't make money from. He hates nearly everything foreign. He hates anything that is not just like him. This will not fare well for all imported items. Or people!

 

[ecohen2]

It is quite possible the new administration will put some type of tariff on European cars. VW, BMW and I think a couple of others are adjusting their forecast in anticipation of a tariff. If that actually happens, we might own the best Grenadiers in the USA because of the wonderful seats and reasonable price.

Do I think it will hurt sales? Probably not, since Mercedes and Range/Land Rover will suffer the same tariffs.. In fact it may benefit Grenadier because it is starting at a lower price point.

If it does happen will it screw the American consumer? Yeah.. I really don't see a domestically made alternative that is really equivalent... We just end up paying for what we want..

I think the company that is screwed the most is Stellantis because they have unwound most US production and even though its a Chrysler product the fact that they moved stuff outside of the USA means they are potentially subject to the tariff. We will just have to wait and see if it is where the car is produced or the components. So much for the Dodge Hornet, which is the Alfa Romeo Tonal....

 

[ADVAW8S]

This is a much more complex conversation than a simple tariff effect. The incoming administration is pro business but also isolationist. In a global world these two ideas pull at each other.

I know that doesn't answer your question, but we won't even know until we see what all the policies are put in place. I will leave you with this, a large portion of American vehicles are made in Mexico. Trump has already stated to get Mexico to be more involved in prevent immigration into US, he will level a large tariff on all goods produced in Mexico. Well that means the vehicles, which tends to be their 35k cars, will be tariffed. The person who is hurt the most are the working class.

 

[parb]

Much of the European manufacturing base has setup factories in the US to avoid tariffs. South Carolina has benefitted tremendously from this.

I expect the next round of tariffs to be aimed at China. It's unclear what is going to happen with semiconductor segments but chips is going to get gutted and it's just not clear what is next.

Europe I'm not so sure of, we will see how they handle the demand that they pay into NATO so US stops shoulder most of that burden. I suspect this will drive most of any European tariff discussion.

Ineos could move production to the US if the biggest market is here but that would be a real undertaking.

 

[AngusMacG]

Honestly I don’t think there will be any tariffs except on China and possibly Mexico (cartel issues). The idea behind the tariffs is to restore manufacturing in the US. This is a larger problem because the workforce has been shifting to services over the last 20 years so many of the blue collar workers are now retiring and there is no one to replace them. That is the biggest issue I see within bring manufacturing back.

 

[parb]

Honestly I don’t think there will be any tariffs except on China and possibly Mexico (cartel issues). The idea behind the tariffs is to restore manufacturing in the US. This is a larger problem because the workforce has been shifting to services over the last 20 years so many of the blue collar workers are now retiring and there is no one to replace them. That is the biggest issue I see within bring manufacturing back.

i tend to agree. Tariffs may be hung on mexico's neck to get them to try to stem the amount of people transiting through Mexico to illegally cross over the US border.

Not sure exactly what tariff would be used for with europe outside getting germany and france to up their nato comittment as a percentage of their GDP.

 

[[ Adam ]]

Much of the European manufacturing base has setup factories in the US to avoid tariffs. South Carolina has benefitted tremendously from this.

Ineos could move production to the US if the biggest market is here but that would be a real undertaking.

Magna has significant manufacturing capacity in the states already. I would not be surprised to see them take this on for Ineos.

 

[parb]

or they can do what Mercedes did/does. Ship vehicles unassembled and assemble in the US.
They literally disassemble the vehicles in Germany prior to shipping and reassemble in the US. All to avoid tariffs.

 

[globalgregors]

Then again if the regulatory state gets dismantled and you withdraw from UNFCCC climate commitments you can at least look forward to diesels. So there’s that…

 

[parb]

you forget that California has their own regulations, and that is either the largest or second largest market. CARB or California Air Resources Board rules is usually what manufacturers try to conform to.

 

[Tazzieman]

The Petulant One cannot be predicted , except for lawyering up every week.
One thing he fears is China going into Taiwan, a war he cannot win. So hit their war machine in the hip pocket. Simples!
Who can possibly predict where Ineos or anyone will be in 4 years , let alone 1?

 

[LC0013]

Mr. Orangepeel simply HATES anything that he can't make money from. He hates nearly everything foreign. He hates anything that is not just like him. This will not fare well for all imported items. Or people!

Yeah right. Kamahoe Harris and Tampon Tim wanted to ban all ICE vehicles and you are scared of Trump.

 

[globalgregors]

you forget that California has their own regulations, and that is either the largest or second largest market. CARB or California Air Resources Board rules is usually what manufacturers try to conform to.

Yes, that was gallows humour. I see Newsom has already committed to countering federal changes.

 

[Jiman01]

i tend to agree. Tariffs may be hung on mexico's neck to get them to try to stem the amount of people transiting through Mexico to illegally cross over the US border.

Not sure exactly what tariff would be used for with europe outside getting germany and france to up their nato comittment as a percentage of their GDP.

IMO, the tariffs or threat of a tariff, is a non-military way to persuade another country to act in a way that benefits the country levying the tariff. Personally I prefer that to acting militarily either directly or via proxy. With that said, I don’t think the UK/EU will be affected.

As for the PRC , it’s a step in the right direction to reset the multi-decade transfer of manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, and tech. How in the world western countries and governments thought it was a good idea to depend on your enemy (or if that’s too strong a label, at the very least your adversary), for essential items like antibiotics, NSAIDS, (and other pre-dosed meds), food, tech (smart phone, computers, computer parts, servers, batteries), etc…boggles the mind. Greed and hubris is the only thing that comes to mind.

 

[parb]

Clinton made China most favored nation in 1993. This is what happened

 

[Shopkeep]

The Grenadier is a niche Euro luxury vehicle (even if it does not have ventilated massaging seats), if all other niche Euro luxury vehicles are going up as well then it may have little impact on sales.

But what happens when nearly everything in Walmart goes up by 20% to 60%? Then the great unwashed might have buyers remorse.

 

[bigleonski]

Not getting political, but from my understanding a great deal of Trump’s agenda items may be highly inflationary, and I’d see that as a bigger problem than tarrifs.
But we will see.

 

[Greg]

Yes it is strange that the party of free markets and small government, their economic model is interventionist market manipulation.

 

[Michael H.]

From the Forum Guidelines … “Discussion or debate of politics or religious topics are not recommended anywhere on theineosforum. I think we can all agree that allowing these topics would never end well and are better suited for other platforms.”

I'm guessing this thread might be giving the moderators and @Stu_Barnes cause for concern.