Residual values in Australia

Tats · Jun 14, 2024

G’Day - prospective owner from WA here working out various things. Have owned P38 (I reckon that car was in palliative care….) and a few Prados with lifts etc and looking for the car to do more touring (no caravan) when I retire in about 3 years. The corrugations and the impact that has on steering and suspension is the main thing that is edging me to the IG vs Prado/Patrol with suspension upgrades. And this forum too - this is an awesome resource. I was a founding member back in the day of a Porsche 928 forum in the UK so I really appreciate everyone’s contribution here. It’s a testament to how you all feel about this car.

So my immediate question is regarding residual values here in Aus. Most cars have stupid second hand values, but I’m starting to see some attractively priced IGs with low km’s. Anyone have any thoughts on if this is just because it’s new and the word isn’t out yet, or is there another reason?

Cheers all, Tats

NQ94 · Jun 14, 2024

I have been following the second hand market for Ineos in Australia and currently there is around 117 vehicles on Car Sales with large variances in prices showing the Land Cruiser of any model still seems like a safer and more stable bet for resale. As much as I like the Grenadier and Quartermaster I am in the current position of being able to buy a new V8 manual LC79 dual cab with factory diff locks and have it delivered by the end of the week with a tray and less than an hour from home for service or wait six to eight months and have a Quartermaster pick-up be delivered with the risk of having the extra NVES fees charged after January and the closest dealer being at minimum 5 hrs away. Honestly as much as I am impressed by the Quartermaster and would like one the LC79 currently looks to be the best option and deal for regional locations.

bigleonski · Jun 14, 2024

I think the IG has to be a long term play.
I fail to see how it (or anything else) will get close to landcruiser resale values within the next 5-10 years.
Something I had difficulty coming to terms with, but jumped in anyway.

Davman · Jun 14, 2024

I have been tracking the sale prices that Carsales considers “an average price range” for used Trialmasters and Fieldmaters - and they have been increasing every couple of weeks.

NQ94 · Jun 14, 2024

bigleonski said:
I think the IG has to be a long term play.
I fail to see how it (or anything else) will get close to landcruiser resale values within the next 5-10 years.
Something I had difficulty coming to terms with, but jumped in anyway.

I looked at the prices today, and followed from the beginning, on Car Sales they to vary from $86K to about $110k on average for under 15k km vehicles with some requesting over $140k and being for sale for a long time. It is still difficult to know what the Grenadier's stabilised resale is going to be in Australia.

Tom D · Jun 14, 2024

I don't know about Aus, but over here a lot of people paid a lot less for the early orders. Mine was £10K under the current price so If I flipped it straight away I could have sold it for a lot less than the current sticker price and still not lost anything. The way I see it I have gained a years depreciation. Mines probably still worth what I paid for it...

Maybe some folks just wanted to get their money back and that now seems cheap due to the price rises.

trobex · Jun 14, 2024

A 2nd Hand Trialmaster or two are sub $100K. So, you can get a bargain really if you need it now.

landmannnn · Jun 14, 2024

I think true of many countries, people bought them thinking they were getting a G Wagen for half price. That's not what they got.

Mules · Jun 14, 2024

I reckon there are some real deals to be had at the moment - if one was in the market for a new Grenadier wagon then it would think it financially wise to grab a second hand one vice a new $135k + build. Unfortunately for folks like me who have theirs for sale (paused as I try again to find a third row seating solution), a lot of poorly-specced ex-dealer demos have flooded the market at quite a reduced price... as has been mentioned, it'll take a while for prices to stabilise - but logically it would trend up given the notable cost increase to the vehicle than what we first adopters handed over..

bigleonski · Jun 14, 2024

landmannnn said:
I think true of many countries, people bought them thinking they were getting a G Wagen for half price. That's not what they got.

I agree, they gor a whole lot more.
Unless they were looking for a pimped up mall crawler, and then they’d be disappointed.

Tats · Jun 15, 2024

Thanks all for the replies - in the past I’ve taken out a novated lease for two years and bought the car for the stipulated residual that’s 56.25 per cent. But this was when interest rates were lower - but had huge benefit given the cars were worth a lot more than I paid. With a 1 yr lease with a 66per cent payout that may be the best way to go.

trobex · Jun 15, 2024

Mules said:
I reckon there are some real deals to be had at the moment - if one was in the market for a new Grenadier wagon then it would think it financially wise to grab a second hand one vice a new $135k + build. Unfortunately for folks like me who have theirs for sale (paused as I try again to find a third row seating solution), a lot of poorly-specced ex-dealer demos have flooded the market at quite a reduced price... as has been mentioned, it'll take a while for prices to stabilise - but logically it would trend up given the notable cost increase to the vehicle than what we first adopters handed over..

I don't think 2nd hand deals over $100k currently bode well for TM/FM spec in this market (say 5000km+). I mean... people are being crunched with cost pressures everywhere and there are seemingly quite a few dealer vehicles being pushed to sale. However the early adopters didn't have to fork out 130K, so as old stock goes the price should stabalise but at what value?

AnD3rew · Jun 15, 2024

I think the last few years over Covid with people with cash to burn and shortages of new vehicles and very long waits have skewed people’s expectations of depreciation and resale value. Historically for most vehicles with a handful of exceptions it was considered pretty much normal to drop 10-15% on delivery and probably another 10%-15% a year for a couple of years before they settled out.

A few niche cars with low volumes bucked and went up. A few like Toyotas held a bit better than average a few mostly higher initial price Euros dropped a bit faster.

I think the whole market is settling back to more normal now. Grenadier now the initial rush is dropping back is probably in the more normal depreciation curve I suspect.

Tom D · Jun 15, 2024

If the reliability is good then the residual value will be good too. We'll have to wait and see for that.

DaveB · Jun 16, 2024

On carsales right now are 118 vehicles listed but many are not really second hand.
Also you need to look at what specification you want first and filter out the rubbish.
A quick filter to a minimum of 2,000 kms on the clock cuts that down to 39 vehicles, with the rest just being dealer fishing units.
Luckily the first three vehicles that come up are one of each base model, Fieldmaster and Trialmaster.
If you then select Diesel and no more than 15,000 kms it drops down to 29 and the prices climb
Choose petrol and there are only 8

Decide if you want diff lockers, extra wiring or Safari windows and you will quickly discover there are very few.
Even if someone says they wouldn't choose them, or you don't want them, or the opposite, you have to get these, you need to make a careful choice as they can't be added later.

Of course carsales is only one of the sites but I think majority of people will list here and then maybe somewhere else as well. (Although I could be wrong)

Tom D · Jun 16, 2024

I'm not sure the safari windows are a dealbreaker but the wiring loom and the lockers are a must...

DaveB · Jun 16, 2024

Tom D said:
I'm not sure the safari windows are a dealbreaker but the wiring loom and the lockers are a must...

Yes that is the point and the beauty of the vehicle.

I am in a beautiful warm sunny climate and "I think" the Safari windows are a must have, I love them.
If you are fitting a full roof rack, or roof tent, they would be a complete waste of money.

Some people have pretty much stripped out and re-wired their vehicle, so the wiring isn't important to them.

The lockers are a 100% yes or no as the axles/diffs are different units.

All Australian units came with a tow hitch but I see the US guys are really struggling with this as their units don't.

Tats · Jun 16, 2024

Again thanks - in sunny Perth I’d prefer a car without the safari windows, but lockers, aux wiring and battery are my pre-requisites.

I’m thinking if I went for another vehicle such as new Prado or y62 Patrol I’d have to do those and I think I’d have a less capable car for the corrugations. I drove a 70 series wagon gxl and it was great fun reminding me of the luxury level of my 1970 mk1 ford escort….but I wouldn’t buy one with city driving in the mix. So the station wagon trialmaster is my sweet spot, or std/fieldmaster with the options above.

Good information on the pre-covid depreciation too. We forget that was the baseline and Tassie seems to be a lot less expensive than our state. Haven’t seen how many jet skis, boats and camper trailers are for sale as maybe this could be a barometer to work with.

DaveB · Jun 16, 2024

Tats said:
Again thanks - in sunny Perth I’d prefer a car without the safari windows, but lockers, aux wiring and battery are my pre-requisites.

I’m thinking if I went for another vehicle such as new Prado or y62 Patrol I’d have to do those and I think I’d have a less capable car for the corrugations. I drove a 70 series wagon gxl and it was great fun reminding me of the luxury level of my 1970 mk1 ford escort….but I wouldn’t buy one with city driving in the mix. So the station wagon trialmaster is my sweet spot, or std/fieldmaster with the options above.

Good information on the pre-covid depreciation too. We forget that was the baseline and Tassie seems to be a lot less expensive than our state. Haven’t seen how many jet skis, boats and camper trailers are for sale as maybe this could be a barometer to work with.

Don't rule out the Safari windows because of the sun
I live significantly further north than you and I have them, with my vehicle parked in the open 24/7
I had them tinted with a heat reflective dark ceramic window film.
They raise the height of the roof above your head by 100mm and provide an airy open cabin.
The coating blocks the bright sun and cabin heating but allows you to quickly cool the cabin on a hot day.
I just edited this video so you can see the Safari windows.
This was an overcast day but stil 30+ degrees.

View: https://youtube.com/shorts/HMFS_Uhiu14?si=J3bncpI-78njmbCI

landmannnn · Jun 16, 2024

It's also really really to change vehicles nowadays.

Over 90% of new vehicles are bought on a finance package, you just go to your G Wagen dealer and they give you a monthly cost including taking the IG in part exchange. (For example)

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Residual values in Australia

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Mules

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Tats

trobex

AnD3rew

Inch deep and a mile wide.

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